Property: Northern Taiwan's July New Housing Market Remains Weak, Zuishan Barometer Still Shows Recessionary Yellow-Blue Light

The Zuishan Barometer, representing the new home project market in Northern Taiwan, maintained its recessionary yellow-blue light in July, with a slight improvement in score to 35.5 points. Among the six components, two showed improvement—pre-sale project volume and newly completed housing units—while four remained flat: number of visitor groups, number of transactions, price negotiation rates, and number of unsold projects.

Chen Bing-chen, Director and Spokesperson of Zuishan's Research Department, noted that July's market was hindered by summer travel and typhoon season, which suppressed buyer activity. Although supply rebounded from the previous month's sharp decline, pre-sale project volume increased by just over NT$20 billion from June, reaching NT$40 billion—30% lower than the same period last year. With weak macroeconomic conditions and no positive policy drivers, developers lacked confidence in launching new projects. Notable launches occurred in Zhonghe and Sanchong districts of New Taipei City, and Zhongli District of Taoyuan City, led by developers such as Baoya, AISLIN (2540-TW), and Yulon Construction.

Statistics show that newly completed housing units also rose in July, with over 400 units launched—300 more than the previous month. The Longshanlin Construction project in Sanchong District contributed over 200 units, becoming the main driver. However, this also reflects limited remaining inventory. The previous wave of land acquisition and construction has led many developers to adopt a 'build-then-sell' model. Now, despite unfavorable market conditions, the substantial capital invested must be recouped through sales, forcing developers to launch projects even in a downturn—often out of necessity rather than market opportunity.

With weak sales performance, the number of unsold projects in July reached 1,600. Price negotiation rates remained within 10%, and while some new projects have adjusted their opening prices downward—particularly in oversupplied areas like Taoyuan City, where well-known projects near MRT stations A7 and A20 are now priced more realistically—adjustments are still aligned with local market levels and lack significant discounts. The narrow gap between listing and transaction prices has led to sluggish absorption. Developers face a cycle of launching new projects while old ones remain unsold, raising concerns about a potential wave of cancellations and capital shifting to the stock market as handover deadlines approach.

Chen Bing-chen pointed out that beyond unresolved loan restrictions and property cooling measures, the stock market's strong capital absorption will significantly impact the housing market through 2026. Despite recent volatility in the Taiwan stock market, investor optimism remains high for the fourth quarter. With elections approaching, policymakers are unlikely to directly stimulate the real estate market, further reducing its appeal to investors.