Energy Markets: Iran Considers Banning U.S., Israeli Vessels from Strait of Hormuz, Proposes 20% Cargo Value Fines, Oil Prices Surge Nearly 4%

International oil prices rebounded strongly on the 6th, as market concerns resurfaced over rising shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian state media, a committee within Iran's parliament is currently reviewing a draft bill that would prohibit vessels from the United States, Israel, and other nations designated as 'hostile' from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Non-compliant vessels could face fines of up to 20% of their cargo's value, prompting markets to reprice in geopolitical risk premiums.

Brent crude oil for October delivery rose $3.04, or 3.83%, closing at $82.49 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September delivery gained $2.07, or 2.75%, settling at $77.29 per barrel. Both benchmark crude contracts posted gains exceeding 3%, reflecting growing market anxiety over deteriorating conditions in the Middle East.

According to Iran's Fars News Agency, the parliamentary committee is currently examining an initial draft of the legislation. In addition to banning vessels from the U.S., Israel, and other hostile states, any ship violating Iran's proposed navigation rules could face penalties equivalent to up to 20% of its cargo's value. The report noted that the bill remains in the expert review phase, with parliament requesting relevant agencies to submit revised proposals before deciding whether to advance formal legislation.

Market participants believe that although the bill has not yet taken effect, it is already sufficient to heighten alertness regarding energy supply risks. Dennis Kissler, Senior Trading Executive at BOK Financial, stated, "Oil traders are still closely watching developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. The longer these talks drag on, the more likely oil prices are to rise again." Currently, the market continues to view diplomatic progress as one of the most critical factors influencing oil prices.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most vital energy transportation chokepoint. Prior to the outbreak of Middle East conflict in late February, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were transported through this waterway. Consequently, any restriction on navigation or military confrontation here could immediately disrupt global energy markets.

On the same day, Yemen's Houthi armed group announced missile and drone attacks on Saudi-deployed forces in the Marib and Hadramout regions, claiming hundreds of pro-Saudi fighters were killed or injured and that military camps, weapons depots, and vehicles were destroyed. The previous day, the Houthis also claimed missile strikes against two Saudi oil tankers—one off the coast of Yanbu in the Red Sea and another near the Gulf of Aden—though Saudi authorities have not confirmed these reports.

John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, pointed out that oil prices have recently been swinging sharply in response to developments across the Middle East. The Houthi attacks underscore that another critical energy transit route—the Red Sea corridor—remains highly vulnerable, reminding markets that the Red Sea shipping crisis is far from over.

Shipping tracking data indicates that crude oil and condensate exports from Persian Gulf countries remained largely stable in July, though they are still about 40% lower than pre-war levels, suggesting that Middle Eastern energy exports have yet to return to normal.

Additionally, Reuters recently reported that Iran has issued warnings to Arab states in the Persian Gulf: if the United States launches another attack on Iranian territory, Tehran will retaliate by targeting key regional energy infrastructure, thereby increasing the military costs for the U.S. and its allies. At the same time, Iran and Oman continue discussions on managing the Strait of Hormuz, but international shipping industry experts believe such proposals face major legal and commercial hurdles—including tolls, insurance, and sanctions—that make full implementation unlikely in the short term.

Analysts say the oil market remains heavily dominated by Middle East dynamics. As long as arrangements for Hormuz passage, U.S.-Iran negotiations, and Red Sea security remain unclear, oil prices are expected to maintain high volatility. Any new military action or diplomatic breakthrough could rapidly shift market expectations regarding global energy supply.