Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, recently raised his 2024 target for the S&P 500 from 7,700 to 8,250 during an interview with CNBC. He also upgraded his earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the year from $310 to $330.

Yardeni described first-quarter earnings as "red-hot," noting that the pace of earnings estimate revisions by analysts is "unprecedented." The consensus estimate for calendar-year earnings growth is now around 23%, and he admitted, "I wasn’t bullish enough."

Yardeni emphasized that this rally is driven by record corporate cash flows and profits—not by Washington policy or speculative FOMO. Biden’s infrastructure spending and Trump-era deregulation have jointly boosted productivity, offsetting pressures from rising oil prices and wages. He also highlighted that the $89 trillion in net assets held by retiring baby boomers is a key source of capital flowing into equities.

Yardeni further predicted that AI will generate net job creation and that the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 by the end of this decade.

The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 9.3% over four trading sessions, with a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 22.3x. Yardeni called this "relatively cheap" for high-growth sectors.

Wall Street analysts broadly agree the rebound will continue. Stocks like Micron and Alphabet still trade below their five-year average P/E ratios, and capital is shifting from leveraged ETFs into individual stocks.

Some strategists note that the rally is broadening from the "Magnificent 7" to semiconductors, memory, and power equipment, with the spillover from AI capital spending determining the depth of the market rotation.

However, Yardeni cautioned about risks from valuation concentration and potential geopolitical flare-ups. The S&P 500 is up 8% year-to-date; if consumer resilience falters or long-term Treasury yields spike again, 8,250 could become a stress test. Still, Yardeni believes that as long as the economy avoids recession and earnings upgrades continue, any pullback presents a buying opportunity.

FACT BOX

  • Source: PR Times
  • Category: Survey
  • Organizations: Yardeni Research / CNBC / Alphabet