UBS Forecast: Gold Price to Rise to $5,000 in First Half of 2027

UBS Group (UBS) released a report on Friday (the 7th), stating that although gold prices face short-term downward risks, they are expected to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.

Current spot gold trading prices have surpassed $4,300 per ounce, marking the highest level since mid-June, though still down approximately 23% from the all-time high of $5,594.82 reached in January 2026.

Gold prices have been under pressure since late February when the Iran war erupted. Inflation concerns triggered by Middle East conflicts led markets to expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, which typically reduces gold’s appeal to investors.

However, gold prices have rebounded more than 4% over the past five trading sessions, primarily driven by Chinese investor buying and inflows into index-based ETFs. Additionally, U.S. and Japanese authorities’ supportive measures for the yen eased sell-off pressure on U.S. Treasuries, preventing a sharp rise in bond yields that would have negatively impacted gold.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi’s team at UBS expects that as inflation gradually slows, the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year (current benchmark rate: 3.50%–3.75%) and restart a rate-cutting cycle in 2027.

They stated: 'This will create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as expectations of lower policy rates could reduce real yields, put pressure on the U.S. dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold.'

Meanwhile, continued gold purchases by central banks globally will also provide solid support to the market.

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Group, said that while short-term gold prices remain threatened by rising oil prices or a hawkish stance from the Fed, any drop in gold prices to $4,000 or below would present an excellent opportunity to establish strategic positions.