Gold Soars Over 7% This Week After Weak U.S. July Jobs Report, Highest Weekly Gain Since January

Spot gold prices rose sharply on Friday (July 7), reaching a seven-week high, driven by the unexpectedly weak U.S. July non-farm payroll report released that day. The disappointing jobs data reduced the likelihood of an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, helping gold extend its weekly gains beyond 7%—its strongest weekly performance in seven months.

Spot gold jumped 2.3%, trading at $4,336.02 per ounce, briefly touching its highest level since June 17 during the session.

December-delivery gold futures settled 2.3% higher at $4,399.70 per ounce.

Gold’s weekly gain exceeded 7%, marking its largest increase since January 19.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 jobs, far below economists’ forecast of an 80,000-job increase. June’s figure was also revised down to just 20,000 jobs added.

David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said: 'Subpar employment data has created a scenario where the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting has diminished.' He noted that falling energy prices, combined with reduced odds of U.S. rate hikes, suggest a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices.

According to LSEG data, interest rate futures now reflect a 43.9% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 57% before the jobs report. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady next month has risen to 56.1%, up from 43.2% prior to the data release.

Since gold does not yield interest, lower interest rates enhance its relative attractiveness compared to income-generating assets.

UBS forecast on Friday that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.

On the geopolitical front, former U.S. President Trump told reporters on Thursday that he believes the Iran war will end 'soon.'

Other precious metals:

Spot silver rose 3%, trading at $63.29 per ounce.

Spot platinum gained 1.1%, at $1,747.60 per ounce.

Spot palladium climbed 0.8%, at $1,381.61 per ounce.

All three metals posted weekly gains.