Costs Plummet 85%! AI Giants Lead the Charge as Humanoid Robots Enter 'Year of Mass Production'

Costs Plummet 85%! AI Giants Lead the Charge as Humanoid Robots Enter 'Year of Mass Production'

### Global Aging and Labor Shortages Accelerate Automation

Global population aging and labor shortages are accelerating the shift toward automation. With breakthroughs in multimodal AI and large models, humanoid robots have evolved from single-purpose machines into universal intelligent systems. As U.S. tech giants like Tesla, Figure AI, Boston Dynamics, and Apptronik begin pilot production and Bill of Materials (BoM) costs plummet by 85%, the industry has officially entered its 'year of mass production,' launching a long-term growth cycle into global labor markets.

### Dual Evolution of Brain and Cerebellum: U.S. Giants Lead Pilot Production

Humanoid robot advancements rely on the dual evolution of the 'brain'—task reasoning—and the 'cerebellum'—motion control. Led by U.S. giants such as Tesla, Figure AI, Boston Dynamics, and Apptronik, humanoid robots are being validated in automotive manufacturing and logistics environments. The industry is expected to enter initial mass production between 2025 and 2026, with large-scale commercial deployment accelerating after 2026.

### Rapid Decline in Hardware Costs: Key Transmission Components Drive Savings

As production scales up, the BoM cost of humanoid robots is projected to drop rapidly from $130,000 to $20,000. Hardware costs are dominated by sensors (37%), motors (20%), screws (20%), and reducers (13%). Planetary roller screws are increasingly replacing traditional screws in linear joints, while harmonic and planetary gear reducers are critical for rotational joints. Localization and mass production of precision transmission components are key to cost reduction.

### Taiwan's Precision and Control Manufacturers Benefit: Securing Supply Chain Positions

Amid the industry's shift toward mass production, Taiwan's precision transmission and control manufacturers are demonstrating strong competitiveness. HIWIN (2049-TW) has improved order visibility and raised prices, actively developing planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers, and launching dual-arm logistics robots. Guei Hsing-KY (4571-TW) shows strong robotic gear performance and is leveraging high-efficiency involute tooth design for joint modules. SYNTECH (7750-TW) continues to increase market share in high-end controllers, integrating 'one machine, one hand' and smart factory solutions to fully capture the benefits of robotic upgrades.

### Humanoid Robotics on a Long-Term Growth Trajectory

The humanoid robot industry is on a long-term structural growth path, driven by two powerful engines: 'multimodal AI large models' and 'global labor shortages.' Leading firms such as HIWIN (2049-TW), Guei Hsing-KY (4571-TW), and SYNTECH (7750-TW) have highly optimistic outlooks and excellent order visibility. Investors should focus on industry leaders with strengths in precision transmission components, high-end controllers, and AI modules to capture long-term investment benefits from automation upgrades. Investors are encouraged to download Analyst Chen Zhi-Lin's app and follow live streams to stay ahead of the latest industry developments.

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Source: Analyst Chen Zhi-Lin / Kaixu Investment Consulting

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