【Stock Analysis】Taiwan Stocks Hold Steady Above Moving Averages as TSMC Revenue Hits New High! Who's Next in Line?

CPO Dark Horse Stocks【3081 Lianfa】⊕AI【2465 Lite-On】⊕, Taiwan stocks hold steady above moving averages, TSMC revenue hits new high! Who's next in line?

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Now let's take a look at today's Taiwan stock market!

The weighted index opened higher and closed higher, rising 702.85 points to close at 44,928.76, with a turnover of 847.373 billion. Observing the fund flows of the three major institutions today, foreign investors bought 51.714 billion, investment trusts bought 2.984 billion, and proprietary traders bought 18.468 billion. The three major institutions collectively bought 73.167 billion, with foreign investors, investment trusts, and proprietary traders all turning from selling to buying.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls in July unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, far below the market expectation of an increase of 83,000, indicating that the labor market is cooling faster than expected. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the economists' estimate of 4.2%, the market's concern about the Fed's rate hike has significantly decreased. FedWatch shows that the market currently expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in September, with the policy rate remaining in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, and the pressure for rate hikes has further decreased, also re-stimulating the buying of tech and semiconductor stocks. U.S. stocks closed across the board on Friday, with the S&P 500 index up 0.62%, setting a new historical closing high, the Nasdaq index surged 1.33%, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 2.56%. Tech stocks have once again become the main force in the market. In terms of individual stocks, (MCHP-US) Microchip surged nearly 14%, (COHR-US) Coherent surged 13.44%, (QCOM-US) Qualcomm rose 4.66%, and the optical communication module manufacturer (AAOI-US) AAC Technologies performed well in its earnings report, driving the optical communication group to rise in unison. In addition, U.S. solar stocks also rose, mainly due to the news that the U.S. government plans to impose a 15% tariff on the import of polysilicon derivative products, and the overall market risk appetite has clearly rebounded.

Driven by the strong rebound in U.S. tech stocks, Taiwan's stock market opened strongly today, providing strong support for the cash market. Coupled with the return of foreign capital, the index once rose by nearly 1,000 points in the intraday, but the volume was not enough to reach 1 trillion, and it encountered the 45,000-point integer level, which seemed a bit hesitant to approach. The closing price rose 702.85 points to 44,928.76, with a turnover of 847.373 billion. Taiwan's stock market today closed with a small red K-bar with a slight increase in volume, but it stood above all moving averages. Under the condition that foreign investors, investment trusts, and proprietary traders all turned from selling to buying, the current technical fund situation is favorable for the bulls.

Looking ahead to this week, the market will focus on three major axes: U.S. inflation, AI earnings, and Taiwan's earnings calls. On August 12, the U.S. CPI will be released, with the market expecting an overall CPI year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a core CPI year-on-year increase of 2.5%. If inflation continues to cool, it will help reduce the necessity of the Fed's rate hikes and lower U.S. bond yields, supporting tech stock valuations. In terms of corporate earnings, (2317-TW) Foxconn's earnings call will focus on AI servers, GB series, ASIC, and cloud capital expenditures. (SMCI-US) Super Micro Computer, (LITE-US) Lumentum, and (COHR-US) Coherent's earnings reports can observe AI server and optical communication demand. On August 13, the PPI will be released, and Applied Materials' earnings will focus on semiconductor equipment spending. (8299-TW) King Yuan's earnings call will focus on NAND, SSD, and AI storage demand.

In terms of large-cap stocks, (2330-TW) TSMC rose 0.42%, closing at 2,380. Its July revenue hit a new record high of 467.58 billion, up 5.6% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year, surpassing June's 442.68 billion and market expectations, indicating that the demand for AI, high-performance computing, and advanced processes remains strong. The cumulative revenue for the first seven months was 2.87206 trillion, up 37% year-on-year, also setting a new historical high. Looking ahead to the third quarter, TSMC estimates that its dollar revenue will reach 44.6 to 45.8 billion, maintaining high operating momentum, and AI demand remains the core driving force for revenue and profit growth.

(2317-TW) Foxconn rose 1.73%, closing at 264.5. Its July revenue reached 946.513 billion, up 15.2% month-on-month and 54.2% year-on-year, setting a new historical high, mainly benefiting from the strong shipment of AI cabinets, driving cloud network business to grow significantly. At the same time, computer terminals, components, and consumer smart products also achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. Looking ahead to the third quarter, analysts are optimistic about the continued increase in AI cabinet shipments, coupled with ICT products entering the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, which is expected to push overall operations to continue to rise. Even though consumer smart products face a high base period last year, they still have growth momentum. Foxconn is expected to release its second-quarter earnings on August 12, and analysts maintain a buy rating, looking forward to AI server demand continuing to be the main growth engine.

(2454-TW) MediaTek rose 1.54%, closing at 3,960. AI ASIC is expected to become the next growth engine, and the company is actively entering the AI data center market, raising its global AI ASIC market share target from 10-15% to 15-20%. It has already cooperated with major cloud service providers, and the first-generation AI Accelerator is expected to be mass-produced in the fourth quarter of this year. AI ASIC revenue is expected to exceed 2 billion this year, and 12-16 billion by 2027. Analysts are optimistic about the rapid growth of AI business, and the EPS for 2026-2028 is expected to reach 66.7, 185.3, and 427.3, with the profit growth curve clearly steepening.

In addition to large-cap stocks, today the Taipei Stock Exchange welcomed the largest-scale change in the handling stock system in nearly 30 years. The new system significantly relaxed the trading restrictions on handling stocks and was accompanied by the retroactive application of the old case. The first batch of 9 handling stocks were unlocked early today, among which (3026-TW) Hsinchu and (3055-TW) Weixia Science both hit the limit up. The market's trading activity is expected to further improve. The memory group became another highlight today. The market expects that the tight supply of memory may continue until the second half of next year, coupled with the latest adjustment of MSCI, the DRAM duopoly is expected to be included in the relevant index, (2408-TW) Nanya and (2344-TW) Wistron both hit the limit up today, driving the memory group to explode. If the demand for AI servers, data centers, and PCs continues to recover, the improvement of the supply and demand structure of the memory industry is still worth continuing to track.

Due to the rapid expansion of AI data centers, the demand for optical communication has ushered in a period of explosive growth. (NVDA-US) NVIDIA announced that CPO technology is gradually moving towards mass production, coupled with the strong growth of North American CSP capital expenditures, the Taiwan silicon photonics supply chain is facing a double blessing of demand and supply. In addition, the U.S. plans to restrict the import of Chinese optical fiber transceiver products, and the transfer effect is expected to expand, benefiting the entire optical communication group. On the other hand, (LITE-US) Lumentum warned of a tight supply of indium phosphide, and the demand may be even tighter than memory. The performance of related Taiwanese companies in the future is worth continuing to pay attention to. Among the strong groups in the Taiwan supply chain, the optical communication group has made a strong statement, with many stocks hitting the limit up! Such as (3081-TW) Lianfa, (4991-TW) Huan Yu -KY, which are involved in wafer manufacturing, (3363-TW) Shangxun, (6442-TW) Guangsheng, which are benefiting from downstream optical fiber, all have good performance!

Among them, we named and predicted (3081-TW) Lianfa, which hit the limit up today.

2026.8.3 Stock Market Queen Leading Prediction (3081-TW) Lianfa

(3081-TW) Lianfa, 1790=>2535, after the leading prediction +41%,

Lianfa benefits from the strong demand for 800G/1.6T silicon photonics optical modules, the improvement of indium phosphide (InP) substrate supply, and continuous expansion. July revenue reached 5.01 billion, breaking through the 5 billion mark for the first time and setting a new historical high, up 19.19% month-on-month and 176.54% year-on-year. The cumulative revenue for the first seven months was 26.27 billion, up 120.95% year-on-year. Benefiting from the continuous expansion of AI data centers, the demand for 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules is strong, and analysts are optimistic about the month-on-month growth of revenue in the third quarter. With the expansion of the Scale-up architecture

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