SpaceX Shares Surge 16% After Lock-Up Expiry; Next Wave of 7% Restricted Stock to Hit Market on August 20

According to Barron's Weekly, SpaceX (SPCX-US) shares rose again on Monday (10th). On Friday, shares surged 16% following the expiration of the first lock-up period, marking the highest closing price in nearly a month, and the upward momentum continued on Monday.

The company, led by Elon Musk and focused on satellite and artificial intelligence (AI) operations, closed Monday up 4.2% at $138.74.

After reaching a record closing high of $201.80 on June 16, SpaceX's stock had been underperforming. That peak came shortly after its IPO on June 12, and as of Friday’s close, the stock was down about 30% from that all-time high.

Wall Street widely expected heavy selling pressure when the first lock-up expired on Thursday, releasing approximately 911 million restricted shares held by insiders. However, the anticipated large-scale insider selling did not materialize. The absence of selling caught short sellers off guard, triggering a wave of short covering, while attracting institutional investors who had been waiting on the sidelines to buy.

Prior to the first unlock, only about 5% of SpaceX shares were freely tradable in the public market, resulting in severely limited liquidity and highly volatile price movements. With over 1.5 billion shares now available for free trading, market bottlenecks have eased, allowing large institutional funds to build substantial positions without significantly increasing trading costs.

Citigroup reaffirmed its $200 target price for SpaceX stock in a report on Monday and raised its financial forecasts for 2026 and 2027, projecting the company could reach approximately $1 trillion in revenue by 2031. SpaceX, however, stated it expects to achieve this milestone by 2030.

Citigroup analysts said they have "greater confidence in management's vision than market consensus."

Market sentiment last week was also boosted by another announcement. SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA-US) announced a joint investment of $16.8 billion to build a semiconductor factory, Terafab, in Grimes County, Texas.

This specially designed facility will produce in-house AI chips for Tesla's robotics products and SpaceX's space-based data center network.

Given the market's reaction to the first lock-up expiry, Wall Street will approach the next unlock with greater caution, and investors need only wait another 10 days.

The second wave of unlocking will take effect before market open on August 20, adding approximately 7% of restricted shares to the market. These shares are primarily held by employees and pre-IPO common shareholders.

If the large-scale insider selling that was expected last time but never occurred finally materializes now, SpaceX's stock volatility could heat up once again.