Musk Aggressively Expands SpaceX AI Computing Power: Analysts Suggest Microsoft Could Become Largest Buyer

According to MarketWatch, Elon Musk's ambitious AI plans for SpaceX (SPCX-US) should be taken seriously. Analysts point out that this initiative could even make Microsoft (MSFT-US) the main buyer of SpaceX's computing capacity.

During SpaceX's first earnings call since going public, Musk revealed grand ambitions. Conservatively, he proposed that SpaceX will significantly expand its current AI computing capacity of approximately 1.4GW to around 6GW–8GW next year, with the possibility of surpassing 10GW.

One potential outcome of this plan: Microsoft, which currently faces significant computing capacity shortages this year and next, could become the primary purchaser of SpaceX's computing power. Microsoft is actively working to provide the computational resources required for OpenAI's most advanced AI models.

This is the view of the research team at SemiAnalysis, an independent research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

In an article published last Friday on Substack, the team conducted an in-depth analysis of Musk's 'world-shaking' ambitions. The research team, composed of Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, and Jordan Nanos, believes these plans are actually feasible.

To scale AI computing capacity up to 10GW, SpaceX would need to invest approximately $300 billion to $500 billion in capital expenditures by the end of 2027. However, SemiAnalysis believes Musk has ways to bypass the limitations typically faced in data center construction. Moreover, the 'large-scale, rapidly deployable computing capacity' referred to by SemiAnalysis is currently extremely scarce, making the market willing to pay a substantial premium—potentially reaching about $50 billion per GW annually.

This sounds like an enormous amount—and indeed it is. Yet companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, operating at the forefront of AI, still have the capability to generate 'substantial returns' from it. How high exactly? Using their proprietary inference simulator and programming benchmarks, SemiAnalysis estimates that each GW of computing capacity could generate approximately $100 billion in recurring annual revenue.

Beyond OpenAI and Anthropic, SemiAnalysis names another company capable of achieving such remarkable economic benefits: Microsoft. Ontiveros and his team argue that Microsoft could achieve the same revenue and profit margins as these mature players without bearing equivalent training costs, thanks to its 27% ownership stake in OpenAI and the existing collaboration agreement between the two parties.

SemiAnalysis wrote, 'Simply put, Microsoft has a huge incentive to acquire as many megawatts of computing capacity as quickly as possible. The resulting impact could accelerate Microsoft Azure’s revenue growth rate from the current ~42% to over 100% by 2027.' For Ontiveros, this represents 'a once-in-a-generation opportunity, and SpaceX is in the best position to capture it.'