【Will It Hit 50,000 Points?】AI and Memory Fire Up Across the Board, Confirming Taiwan Stock Market’s V-Shaped Recovery!

U.S. July CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year, in line with market expectations and slightly below June’s 3.5%. Month-over-month, it rose only 0.1%, indicating inflation remains under control. This eased market concerns over a potential Fed rate hike in September, prompting renewed capital inflows into technology and semiconductor sectors. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748.50, the Nasdaq gained 0.54%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 2.49%. Only the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.04%. NVIDIA soared 3.03%, Micron rose 4.92%, and SK Hynix ADR skyrocketed 9.01%, reaffirming that AI and memory remain the strongest market themes.

Technically, the S&P 500 is nearing its previous all-time high of 7,757 points. The Nasdaq has regained strength, and the SOX has already broken out to new highs—indicating a clear bullish structure. As long as the S&P does not break below its prior breakout zone, the probability of U.S. equities reaching new highs remains high. However, Middle East risks persist. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, Brent crude hovers around $88, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.68%. Energy prices and interest rates remain the biggest future risk factors.

Following last night’s CPI release, U.S. stocks did not experience a 'sell-the-news' reaction. Instead, the SOX rose nearly 2.5%, and both NVIDIA and memory stocks surged. This sets the stage for continued strength in Taiwan’s large-cap tech stocks today. Technically, after the prior sharp decline, the index has rebounded over 6,000 points from its lows, reclaiming the monthly, quarterly, and short-term moving averages. The bullish structure is now very clear. Today, the Taiwan stock index is expected to hold above 46,000 points, confirming a V-shaped recovery signal. In the short term, the market will steadily rise again, challenging historical highs. With indices already extended, we do not recommend buying index-linked products. Instead, focus on fundamentally sound individual stocks that have not yet begun their upward move. Maintain a bullish stance but avoid chasing excessively high prices—this is currently the best trading strategy.

On the individual stock front, the most notable short-term trend is the broad ignition of 'Memory + AI Servers'. On Wednesday (8/12), Micron rose 4.92%, SK Hynix ADR surged 9.01%, SanDisk gained 5.76%, and Seagate jumped 7.03%. Memory and storage stocks rallied almost across the board, reflecting the ongoing tight supply-demand fundamentals driven by massive HBM, DRAM, and enterprise storage consumption in AI data centers. Investors should continue monitoring Taiwan-listed stocks such as Nanya Technology (2408), Winbond (2344), Phison Electronics (8299), and ADATA (3260). However, avoid chasing stocks that have already risen sharply in the short term. Wait for pullbacks, consolidation, and volume contraction without price declines before entering positions.

AI servers are also extremely strong. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged 19.02% on Wednesday, CoreWeave rose 19.29%, and Dell jumped nearly 10%, signaling robust AI capital expenditures and server demand. Yesterday, Taiwan’s Yung Chie (7711) and Compal (2324) hit their daily limits, while Inventec (2356), Quanta (2382), Wiwynn (6669), and Wistron (3231) also strengthened. Continue watching Hon Hai (2317), Wiwynn (6669), Wistron (3231), Quanta (2382), Chicony (3017), Twinhead (3324), and Tatung (2383). With CPI concerns cleared, the SOX rallying, and AI and memory taking the lead, the bullish trend remains intact. However, as the market approaches prior highs, stock selection becomes more important than chasing the index. Rotate out of weak performers, hold the strongest names, and maintain some cash reserves to weather volatility—this is how to navigate this rally with greater stability.