OpenAI and Anthropic Hold the Key to Survival! 'The Big Short' Real-Life Protagonist Warns: AI Boom Has a Fatal Weakness

Wall Street's well-known investor Steve Eisman has issued a fresh warning that the current artificial intelligence boom is becoming increasingly reliant on the fortunes of two companies: OpenAI and Anthropic. Eisman, who now hosts the podcast 'Eisman's Real Investment Rules,' previously served as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

The investor, famous for betting against the U.S. housing market just before the global financial crisis, told CNBC on Tuesday (the 11th) that about 70% of the AI-related revenue for four tech giants—Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle—comes from these two AI startups, OpenAI and Anthropic. He added that revenue from OpenAI and Anthropic accounts for 25% to 35% of the total income from the cloud computing businesses of these four companies.

Eisman said: 'In a sense, the future of these tech giants is essentially a bet on OpenAI and Anthropic ultimately succeeding.'

Eisman, who also hosts the podcast 'Eisman's Real Investment Rules' and formerly served as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, pointed out that the biggest potential threat to AI industry revenues comes from open-source AI models that have a significant price advantage.

He said: 'This is the fatal weakness in the entire AI rally. If Anthropic and OpenAI suffer a major setback, the situation will change. Some open-source large models and open-weight models are far cheaper. From what I've gathered through various channels, they've already begun aggressively capturing market share, and fierce competition is likely to erupt across the industry.'

As the debate intensifies over whether the massive investments in the AI boom can deliver sufficient returns, Eisman's comments add another heavyweight voice to the discussion.

Michael Burry, the real-life figure behind the Hollywood film 'The Big Short,' holds an even more pessimistic view. He questions whether most current and future AI demand stems from genuine end-user needs, suggesting much of it arises from what he calls a 'circular funding model.'

Burry has put his money where his mouth is, taking short positions against major beneficiaries of this AI wave, such as NVIDIA, and has disclosed his short holdings in the broader semiconductor market.