Apple's New Devices Face Dual Impact from Memory Price Hikes and Component Shortages

Apple's fall event will launch foldable and Pro models first, with the standard iPhone 18 expected to be released next March.

The upcoming fall event, a major annual highlight, will unveil new products in September:

- iPhone: Ultra Foldable, 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max - Apple Watch: Series 12, Ultra 4 - Apple TV box, HomePod mini - Standard iPhone 18, 18e, Air2 to be launched next March

Production forecasts: Foreign institutions estimate 54 million iPhone units produced in Q3 2026, but have downgraded iPad production to 12 million units. Foldable device shipments in H2 are projected at 7–8 million units. However, initial component procurement volumes are not highly indicative, as Apple typically stocks up in Q2–Q3 for new launches. The crucial second procurement wave in Q4 reflects actual sales and becomes the true benchmark for supply chain revenue.

BOM structure is undergoing significant changes, with memory cost占比 sharply increasing—price hikes are inevitable.

First, memory prices are rising, affecting LPDDR6X RAM and QLC/SLC NAND, with memory cost占比 surging. Currently, cost pressure from memory price hikes is being partially offset by panel price cuts. However, it's not just the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max—launching the foldable device means panels and hinges will be bundled, effectively upgrading specs and enabling price increases.

Is component shortage (long/short material) risk rising?

Beyond pricing, final retail prices and consumer response remain key, but component shortage risks are escalating. Recent rumors widely suggest TSMC's inventory turnover has significantly dropped and inventory days have sharply increased. Some institutions speculate TSMC is hoarding over $1 billion in processor semi-finished goods, waiting for critically tight memory supply.

Counterarguments claim chip inventory buildup ahead of September launches is normal, and Q2-end figures naturally represent the lowest turnover point. However, our center believes this data cannot be dismissed so easily.

Plotting TSMC's quarterly inventory turnover by year (Q1–Q4) clearly shows seasonal patterns. The notion that Q2 is always the lowest point is increasingly invalid, especially in 2024 and 2025. The formula (COGS / average inventory) reflects TSMC's growing AI accelerator revenue占比, weakening the counterargument.

Thus, this abnormal inventory buildup must stem from a major product—likely Apple's smartphone AP or Rubin chip, or both. Our center believes the former has a larger impact.

Summary:

This news hasn't fully materialized or been confirmed. TSMC won't publicly explain. Apple's stock fell post-earnings, officially breaking below $300. Watch foreign investor moves and valuation adjustments—potential capital outflows may target the smartphone supply chain.

(Written by Fan Zhenfeng, Analyst, Yongcheng Asset Management)

Click the image below 【60-second test: How good is your financial talent?】

"Yongcheng Asset Management" is the only licensed securities investment advisory firm in Taiwan with a dedicated asset management department. For 20 years, we've specialized in serving major tech parks, offering personalized, conflict-free wealth management—helping hardworking individuals experience VIP-level financial stewardship.

No financial product sales, no commission bias—minimize your financial leaks! Through "custom projects," "refined service," and "systematic returns," grow your wealth without sacrificing time or energy.

Our "Outstanding Investment Research Team" and "Top-tier Financial Advisors" help clients achieve milestones.

▪ Join now https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598 ▪ Learn more https://www.ycam.com.tw/ ▪ Listen to "Asset Insights" Podcast https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8

Securities recommended by our company have no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks.