Cybercab Hype Fades! Is Tesla's Stock Now More Tied to SpaceX? Stock Movements Synced Two-Thirds of the Time

Tesla (TSLA-US) investors' attention is shifting. Topics that once dominated market sentiment—Cybercab, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots—are now potentially being overshadowed by the stock performance of Elon Musk’s space and AI company, SpaceX (SPCX-US), and growing market speculation about a possible merger between the two firms.

Tesla and SpaceX stock prices have shown a high degree of correlation recently. Heading into Monday’s (17th) trading session, Tesla had gained for two consecutive weeks, as had SpaceX. Prior to that, Tesla had declined for three straight weeks, while SpaceX fell for four consecutive weeks. Data from recent weeks indicate that the two companies’ stocks moved in the same direction on approximately two-thirds of trading days.

A key reason behind this correlation is rising Wall Street speculation that Tesla and SpaceX may eventually merge. Both companies are led by the same core figure, Musk, and are heavily investing in artificial intelligence, prompting the market to consider the strategic and financial value of such an integration.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noted in a July report that a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla could be highly attractive to Tesla shareholders. He suggested the deal could create a vertically integrated AI ecosystem from "orbit to ground," combining SpaceX’s Starlink connectivity business, Tesla’s real-world AI deployment capabilities, and SpaceX’s orbital computing infrastructure.

Narayan covers Tesla, while another RBC analyst, Ken Herbert, focuses on SpaceX.

SpaceX’s Starlink currently provides satellite broadband internet services, delivering high-speed connectivity globally via low-orbit satellites. Tesla’s concept of "physical AI" includes Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and other AI systems capable of autonomous operation in the real world.

If the two companies were to integrate, the market envisions more than just a corporate merger—a comprehensive ecosystem encompassing satellite networks, AI computing, autonomous driving, robotics, and physical infrastructure.

Narayan further believes that if SpaceX were to propose a merger with Tesla, it might need to offer a premium to win Tesla shareholder approval. However, it is currently difficult to determine the size of such a premium, or whether the deal will actually happen.

But for the market, the key point is that the mere "possibility" of a merger is already influencing Tesla’s stock price—and its significance may now exceed that of Cybercab and Robotaxi deployment.

This shift was particularly evident in Monday’s stock performance. According to The Information, Tesla plans to launch its purpose-built autonomous driving vehicle, the Cybercab, as early as this month in Austin, Texas. Initially, it will be available to employees on public roads, with plans to integrate it into the Robotaxi service shortly after.

The Cybercab is central to Tesla’s future autonomous driving strategy, notable for eliminating the steering wheel and pedals, aiming to rely entirely on autonomous systems for passenger transport. Historically, any positive news about the Cybercab’s official launch would likely boost Tesla’s stock.

Yet Monday’s market reaction was strikingly different.

Tesla’s stock fell 0.9%, closing at $339.30—declining more than expected even before the Cybercab news was released. In comparison, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s stock surged 4.5%, closing at $146.23.

This contrast highlights the changing market focus. Despite positive news about the Cybercab rollout, investors did not rally behind Tesla, instead paying closer attention to SpaceX’s valuation shifts and the potential for deeper integration between the two companies.

If this correlation persists, Tesla’s stock may no longer reflect just auto sales, Robotaxi services, and robot progress, but increasingly mirror SpaceX’s corporate value.

For Tesla investors, this represents a significant shift in valuation logic. SpaceX is not publicly traded, so its valuation comes primarily from private market transactions. If SpaceX’s valuation continues to rise, the market may further elevate its expectations for Tesla’s potential merger value.

Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at Ark Invest, recently suggested that a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced this year. Ark Invest holds stakes in both SpaceX and Tesla-related stocks, making its views influential in the market.

If such a deal occurs, it could yield multiple strategic synergies. SpaceX’s Starlink could provide global connectivity, while Tesla offers a vast fleet of EVs, Robotaxis, and humanoid robots. Combined with AI models, data centers, and computing resources, the two could theoretically form a seamless platform extending from space infrastructure to ground-level AI devices.

However, the potential deal remains highly uncertain. There is no indication that Tesla and SpaceX have formally agreed to merge or are even in official talks. Corporate governance, shareholder interests, valuation, regulatory hurdles, and transaction structure could all become major obstacles.

Thus, the market is currently trading on "possibility," not an actual merger.

The recent synchronized movement of Tesla and SpaceX stock prices is evidence that this market expectation is already having an impact. When SpaceX’s valuation rises, investors may increase their expectations for Tesla to gain access to SpaceX’s assets or synergies; conversely, if SpaceX’s valuation faces pressure, it could dampen market imagination around the potential deal.

This also explains why Cybercab’s importance is relatively declining. Robotaxi remains one of Tesla’s most critical long-term growth narratives, and whether Cybercab can achieve mass production, gain regulatory approval, and build a large-scale autonomous fleet will directly impact the company’s future revenue and profitability.

But in today’s stock market, investors may already be viewing Tesla as part of Musk’s broader AI and technology ecosystem, rather than just an electric vehicle company.

If merger rumors between SpaceX and Tesla continue to intensify—or even if formal deal news emerges—this theme could have a more direct and powerful impact on Tesla’s stock than short-term Cybercab testing or Robotaxi fleet expansion.

At this point, no one can accurately predict when—or even if—the two companies will merge. But one thing is certain: SpaceX has become a new variable that Tesla investors can no longer ignore. With stock movements aligned about two-thirds of the time and Wall Street analysts openly discussing the strategic value of a potential merger, the market is gradually incorporating SpaceX into Tesla’s valuation equation.