Is HBM Like the Strait of Hormuz? Two Investment Titans Warn of 'Self-Cannibalization' Risk in Memory Stocks

In the current boom of AI infrastructure investment, memory chip stocks appear to be among the biggest beneficiaries of explosive computing demand. However, renowned investor Cathie Wood, known as 'the Woodie,' and technology strategist Ben Thompson have both expressed caution.

Their core judgment is strikingly aligned: the current high prices and high profits of memory chip stocks are generating 'forces that destroy themselves'—a view that directly challenges market enthusiasm for memory chip equities.

Wood recently explained on a podcast why she does not hold memory chip stocks. She stated that years of investment experience have made her highly cautious about cyclical industries.

She believes memory is the most commoditized and volatile segment in the semiconductor supply chain. The current surge in HBM prices—up three to tenfold—is not a normal phenomenon in the tech industry.

Wood said, 'Most people see this as a huge positive, but it's actually a negative signal,' and further analyzed from a cash flow perspective: recently, free cash flow trends for chipmakers and hyperscale cloud operators have moved in completely opposite directions—benefiting the former while pressuring the latter. However, Wood emphasized this state is temporary.

More importantly, she believes technological innovation is actively reducing reliance on HBM from the demand side. She cited Cerebras and Groq, inference chip companies in which ARK has invested, noting that both companies' architectural designs do not require HBM.

Wood likened this to Tesla's removal of cobalt from batteries: 'Once a supply chain component becomes expensive or risky, engineers find ways to bypass it. In inference, we're seeing HBM demand being replaced by engineering solutions.'

Meanwhile, technology strategist Ben Thompson offered a sharper warning from a competitive博弈 perspective. He compared memory manufacturers to Iran and HBM to the Strait of Hormuz. 'The Strait of Hormuz’s deterrent power lies in it being a card that can always be played. Once it’s actually used, it triggers the opponent’s determination to completely bypass it.'

Thompson explained: 'Now, memory vendors have played this card, and it has worked. But just as the UAE and Saudi Arabia build oil pipelines and new ports, the industry won’t allow this to happen again.'

Thompson pointed out that memory vendors’ high-price strategy is creating a chain reaction: Apple is lobbying to bring in Chinese memory suppliers to break the existing structure, while at the algorithm level, the top optimization priority has become 'how to reduce memory usage.'

He concluded, 'No one wants to be caught in such a passive situation again over memory,' and believes that by creating such a massive 'attack target,' memory vendors may end up paying the price in the long run.

Although Wood and Thompson use different analytical frameworks, their conclusions are highly consistent: the current strength of memory chip stocks is accelerating their own replacement. Amid rapidly expanding AI inference demand, investors must be wary of structural risks from technology shifts and demand-side avoidance. The market’s current high boom may, in fact, be the strongest driver pushing the entire industry to find alternatives. This 'self-cannibalization' effect triggered by high prices deserves close attention from all market participants.