Is the High-Input Model Cooling Down? Anthropic Aims for $2T+ IPO Amid Flagship Model Sales Stagnation

AI startup Anthropic is gearing up for its initial public offering (IPO) in September or October 2024, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion—a figure that would surpass SpaceX’s current record of $1.77 trillion. While the company reported an annualized revenue of $65 billion as of July 2024—far outpacing its previous 2025 target of $9 billion—and achieved its first adjusted operating profit, its revenue trajectory still falls slightly short of investor expectations of $80 billion annually.

The primary threat to Anthropic’s sky-high valuation is the stagnant sales of its latest flagship model, Fable 5. According to Ramp’s analysis of spending data from 70,000 U.S. companies, Fable 5, launched over two months ago, accounts for just 11.4% of Anthropic’s total product sales. The primary culprit is its exorbitant pricing: $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens.

In benchmark tests, Fable 5 scored 70.5 points at a cost of $17.32 per task, while the cheaper Opus 5—priced at half the cost—achieved a score of 70.0 at just $8.23 per task. As a result, Opus 5 quickly overtook Fable 5 in enterprise spending within a month of its release.

Competitor OpenAI’s flagship model, GPT-5.6 (Sol), already contributes 23% of its total revenue and is priced significantly lower than Fable 5. Additionally, Fable 5 faced a weeks-long sales halt in June 2024 due to U.S. government export restrictions, and its 30-day data retention policy has deterred compliance-sensitive buyers.

Miles Clements, a partner at Accel, notes that the era where customers exclusively chase cutting-edge models is fading. If enterprises continue opting for cost-effective, 'good enough' alternatives, Anthropic’s goal of reaching $200 billion in annual revenue by 2028 will face even greater hurdles.