U.S. Tariff Threat Triggers Copper Stockpiling, NY Prices Hit Record High

Fears of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper have triggered a surge of metal into American warehouses, causing supply tightness in other parts of the world and pushing New York copper prices to a record high.

Copper futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) rose as much as 1.8% on Tuesday (25th), reaching $6.7270 per pound (approximately $14,830 per ton), surpassing the previous record set earlier this month. Meanwhile, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also approached historic highs, briefly trading at $14,343 per ton.

The core driver behind this strong rally is market anticipation of potential tariff policies. Traders are positioning ahead of possible U.S. tariffs on refined copper, with Washington considering a 15% levy starting January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.

To hedge against the impending tax, traders are accelerating copper shipments into the United States. This has caused Comex warehouse inventories to rise for 46 consecutive days, reaching a record 675,185 tons. U.S. refined copper imports in the first half of this year reached 885,000 tons, up 3% year-on-year.

The massive inflow of copper into the U.S. is disrupting the traditional global market balance. Consulting firm CRU previously forecast a 639,000-ton global copper surplus in 2026, but now believes the market will be at best balanced. Analyst Robert Edwards even warned that if imports continue at the current pace, the global market could "effectively enter a deficit state of supply shortage."

Macquarie strategist Alice Fox noted that while U.S. stockpiles could take years to deplete, prices could still "spike sharply" if tariffs are implemented. However, Glencore CEO Gary Nagle holds a different view, arguing that regardless of the final tariff level, the elimination of policy uncertainty once the rules are finalized could trigger a price correction.