Has Taiwan Stock Market's 9-Month Winning Streak Hit Zero? Raise Cash Holdings, Trade Ranges Short-Term, Watch Quarterly Lines for Trends!

Influenced by the hawkish remarks of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index are shifting back toward tightening, while escalating U.S.-Iran tensions add further volatility to markets. High-valuation tech stocks are naturally feeling the pressure. As the market stands at a crossroads of bullish and bearish forces, investment logic must be adjusted.

Is the Taiwan Stock Market Entering the 'September Curse'? Quarterly Support Becomes Key

The Taiwan stock market closed down 202.98 points today, with the weighted index settling at 46,128.47; the GreTai index continues digesting resistance from its downward-trending quarterly line. With the New Taiwan dollar's sharp appreciation pausing, foreign investors have adopted a more conservative stance. However, the market closed with a significantly narrowed decline, supported by trading volume of approximately NT$310 billion, and most sectors closed with clear lower shadows—or even rebounded into positive territory.

Notably, the Taiwan stock market is about to enter its September season. Statistics show a 0% probability of gains over the past five years. If historical seasonal correction patterns hold, even if prices surge mid-month, investors must remain vigilant against profit-taking and pullback pressure. Therefore, current strategy should prioritize controlling equity exposure. Short-term trading should focus on range-based price differentials, while medium-term positioning should patiently await index retests of the quarterly line and confirmation of support before making decisions.

High-Performing PCB Stocks Face Volatility at Peaks; Key Packaging & Testing Stocks Await Position Settling

Market focus over the weekend remains on PCB and ABF substrate stocks. Kinsus Interconnect (2368-TW), which we previously positioned early, surged toward the daily limit in morning trading but opened on heavy volume. Instructor Chih-Lin chose to lock in profits, planning to re-enter when the stock finds reasonable support. As for King Yuan Electronics (2449-TW), previously analyzed, it entered consolidation today, dragged down by broader market weakness. With the quarterly line's base values remaining high over the next month, overhead resistance requires time to digest. However, a bottoming pattern is gradually forming. Once the broader market completes its consolidation, AI-core fundamentally strong stocks still hold room for catch-up gains.

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High-Valuation AI Stocks Face Volatility; Power Sector Emerges as New Safe Haven

Recently, the Fed's hawkish stance has intensified, and U.S.-Iran tensions add uncertainty. In a high-interest-rate environment, tech growth stocks remain highly sensitive to capital flows. Market funds are shifting toward defensive sectors with policy support and rigid demand. The U.S. continues strengthening its power grid supply chain, while AI data center power demand keeps rising, boosting attention on power-sector leaders such as Huatech (1519-TW), Shihden (1503-TW), Chung Hsing Electric (1513-TW), and Delta Electronics (2308-TW).

With the market at a bullish-bearish crossroads, identifying shifts between high and low bases and tracking capital flows is essential to finding low-buy, high-sell opportunities amid volatility. To position ahead of the next core trend, investors are invited to download the 【Analyst Chen Chih-Lin APP】. Real-time updates are shared instantly within the app, helping you master market rhythm with data. Weekly updates to the credit position risk watchlist help you avoid risks and lock in opportunities.

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Source: Analyst Chen Chih-Lin / Kaishin Investment Advisory

The individual securities recommended and analyzed by our company involve no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks.