Gold Price Rebounds Over 1.3%, Rising Above $4,400; Experts: Bottom Not Confirmed, Don't Mistake Bounce for Reversal

International gold prices rebounded modestly today (3rd). As of 2:15 PM Taiwan time, COMEX gold futures rose 1.35% to $4,474 per ounce. Gold-related ETFs such as Everwin, ICBC, and Ping An surged over 2.5% during trading, with most gold ETFs turning positive.

Since mid-August, gold-related ETFs have seen consecutive net outflows. In the last two weeks of August, 317 million and 379 million shares were redeemed respectively. On the first trading day of September, another 214 million shares were redeemed. However, yesterday (2nd), net subscriptions approached 200 million shares, shifting from net outflow to net inflow.

Wei Fengchun, Chief Economist at China Chuangjin Harvest Fund, stated that this merely reflects a temporary stabilization of pessimistic sentiment, "not the end of the correction or confirmation of a bottom."

The core of this sharp correction lies in the strong U.S. dollar and rising inflation, which have dampened rate cut expectations. The latest U.S. employment data has further clouded the rate hike path, adding to market uncertainty. Until these two negative factors reverse, it is premature to declare a bottom. A true bottom will only emerge when two signals coincide: "the U.S. dollar peaking and declining" and "rate cut expectations recovering," not merely from a single day of capital inflow.

Bridgewater China recently issued a statement clarifying previous misinterpretations. The firm maintains that gold remains a long-term store of value during currency-depreciation-driven inflation, but short-term inflation does not necessarily equate to sustained depreciation. If Fed Chair Powell raises rates to preserve purchasing power, gold's appeal may actually weaken.

The short-term relationship between gold and inflation fundamentally depends on the Fed's credibility, while in the long term, gold serves as the "ultimate credit hedge" against sovereign debt and credit cycles.

Wei Fengchun noted that gold's role this year has shifted from a "traditional safe-haven anchor" to a "hedge against sovereign debt cycles." Investors must avoid two pitfalls: short-term cycles should be anchored to the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, while long-term cycles should be tied to debt credit—these must not be mismatched. Additionally, non-yielding gold and AI tech assets operate on conflicting logics; over-allocating to gold sacrifices growth flexibility. Gold is suitable as a long-term risk-control base holding, not for chasing short-term price spreads.

For retail investors, this rebound in gold prices is not a signal to charge forward, but rather a window to observe and rebalance core holdings.