Will AI Stocks Face a 'Crash' on Monday? Do the Three Tech Giants Really Want to Slow AI Development for 'Safety' or Because They 'Can't Afford It Anymore'?

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for a slowdown in the development of cutting-edge AI models, a move supported by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk, triggering market turbulence. Data from the HyperliquidX platform shows that assets linked to OpenAI and Anthropic dropped 7% and 2.8% respectively following the announcement. Social media platforms are also buzzing with speculation that AI-related stocks could face declines exceeding 10% when markets open on Monday (14th). However, some market observers argue that an 'AI slowdown' does not necessarily indicate weakening demand. Instead, it may represent a strategic move by AI companies to reassess massive infrastructure investments and recalibrate market growth expectations.

On Saturday (12th), Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei posted a message urging the global AI industry to voluntarily reduce the pace of advanced model development. This call was quickly echoed by Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Altman also told Fortune that OpenAI will not pursue an initial public offering (IPO) this year, stating that going public under current safety conditions would not be 'wise.'

This rare 'AI slowdown' message immediately impacted market sentiment. Early trading data shows that related assets declined after the news broke, with OpenAI and Anthropic-linked assets falling 7% and 2.8% respectively on the HyperliquidX platform.

Market participants are now assessing the potential impact on the AI supply chain. Multiple investors have warned via social media platforms that AI-related stocks such as NVIDIA (NVDA-US), Broadcom (AVGO-US), and AMD (AMD-US) could face selling pressure on Monday.

Jason, a tech investor on the X platform, directly stated that AI stocks could drop more than 10% in early Monday trading and suggested that Amodei's post might shake the currently popular 'AI trade.'

AI Spending Growth Expectations May Be Reassessed

The core concern in the market is that the high valuations of AI-related stocks and massive capital expenditures are based on the expectation that AI model capabilities will continue to improve rapidly and that enterprises will keep increasing their AI investments.

X user preetkailon pointed out that if the pace of cutting-edge AI development truly begins to slow, investors will inevitably re-examine the current market pricing logic. He advised closely monitoring the stock performance of AI-related companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL-US), and warned investors against blindly chasing high prices in the current environment.

However, there is still debate in the market over whether a slowdown in AI model development will lead to a simultaneous cooling of computing power demand.

X user The AI Investor believes that current AI models already possess sufficient productivity to continue driving significant inference computing demand.

He pointed out that even if model development slows, the actual impact on computing demand may be limited, and short-term shocks are more likely driven by market sentiment and panic rather than the actual operations of AI-related companies.

AI Slowdown Contradicts High IPO Valuations

Another focal point attracting market attention is OpenAI's decision not to proceed with an IPO.

CNBC journalist Deirdre Bosa believes this decision is not surprising. She noted that as OpenAI and Anthropic begin to acknowledge that business pressures may push AI companies to advance model development too quickly, it will become increasingly difficult for these companies to maintain high-growth narratives in the public markets.

After going public, companies must not only face investor demands for growth but also regularly disclose financial data, and their stock prices will fluctuate continuously with market expectations. In such an environment, explaining to shareholders that 'the company needs to slow down growth' is clearly not an easy investment story to build.

Bosa pointed out that while safe AI development may be more important than maximizing wealth creation, the current high private valuations, funding needs, and investor expectations for massive returns are all built on the premise of continuous rapid advancement in AI capabilities.

As for what Amodei means by 'slowing down'—whether it refers to slowing overall business growth or merely slowing down advanced model training—Bosa believes these two scenarios have different impacts on valuation. Given that the valuations of these companies heavily depend on continuous breakthroughs in cutting-edge technology, slowing down advanced model development could directly undermine the core logic supporting high valuations, especially in a competitive environment where open-source weight models are catching up.

Beyond Safety: Capital Expenditure Implications

The rare alignment of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Musk in publicly supporting 'AI slowdown' has also led to alternative interpretations—that companies may be weighing both safety and commercial considerations.

X user Jason Choi pointed out that while Anthropic has frequently discussed AI safety in the past, the timing of this specific call for slowdown is worth noting.

From a corporate interest perspective, slowing down advanced model development means giving competitors more time to catch up, which is not without cost for companies that rely heavily on technological leadership to maintain their valuations.

Therefore, the rare simultaneous support for slowdown by the three parties has sparked discussions about their commercial intentions.

One view is that this move may serve to manage IPO expectations and create room for future adjustments to capital expenditures. As AI infrastructure investments continue to expand, slowing development for 'safety reasons' could allow high-valuation AI startups to reduce financial pressure from continuous cash burn, as 'we are slowing down voluntarily for safety' is far more acceptable to the market than 'we can't afford it anymore.'

Analysts suggest that what the market truly needs to observe is not just whether AI is 'slowing down,' but whether this shift represents a genuine turning point in the AI industry or whether companies are simply reshaping market expectations around AI growth and capital expenditures.

The market reaction of AI-related stocks on Monday will be a key short-term indicator.