Latest Path of Typhoon Bavi Revealed! Will There Be a Typhoon Holiday? Experts Say: 5 Counties/Cities Have Highest Probability, Landfall Risk Over 90%

Typhoon Bavi, closely monitored by the meteorological community, is steadily approaching Taiwan. According to the latest meteorological observations and track forecasts, Bavi's wind field is extensive, with a high chance of making landfall and crossing the main island of Taiwan. As a result, the probability of work and school suspensions across multiple counties and cities is rising. In light of this powerful typhoon, meteorological experts have clearly warned that the alert zone has expanded further, urging the public to prepare for typhoon defense as early as possible.

What is the latest projected path of Typhoon Bavi? When will it begin to turn?

Regarding the latest developments of Typhoon Bavi, Dr. Lin De-en, atmospheric science PhD from National Taiwan University, analyzed the situation on his Facebook page 'Dr. Lin's Weather Station.' According to Dr. Lin, Typhoon Bavi is currently moving steadily in a northwest-west to northwest direction, guided by the surrounding steering flow. Based on current meteorological data, the northward component of the typhoon's movement is expected to gradually increase around tomorrow, marking the critical 'northward turning point.'

When will the strongest winds and rains occur? Which areas should be especially vigilant against heavy rainfall?

As the typhoon approaches, rainfall across Taiwan will intensify. Dr. Lin noted that Bavi is advancing along the western edge of the Pacific high-pressure system, drawing closer to Taiwan's landmass. He predicts that Bavi will maintain its peak intensity as a 'severe typhoon' until Saturday. In terms of timing for wind and rain impacts, Dr. Lin assesses that Friday and Saturday will be the key periods when the typhoon's center is closest to Taiwan, bringing the most significant wind and rain effects. Mountainous areas, in particular, are expected to experience highly concentrated and intense rainfall, potentially reaching heavy to extreme rainfall levels. Residents in mountainous regions and those planning to visit should remain especially alert.

Which counties and cities have a high chance of typhoon holidays? Typhoon wind zone impact probabilities revealed

Regarding the public's most pressing concerns—work/school suspensions and the typhoon's wind zone reach—the Central Weather Administration has released the '120-hour typhoon wind impact probability' for all counties and cities. Data shows that Yilan, Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan have typhoon wind impact probabilities exceeding 90%, indicating a high likelihood of typhoon holidays in these areas. Dr. Lin emphasized that 'the alert zone has clearly expanded compared to before.' Besides these five counties/cities surpassing 90%, areas north of Hualien and north of Miaoli all have wind impact probabilities above 80%.

How will the typhoon's intensity change in the future? When will it gradually move away?

After crossing Taiwan or its surrounding waters, Typhoon Bavi is expected to weaken due to environmental and topographical influences. Dr. Lin analyzed that starting Saturday, the typhoon will weaken to a 'moderate typhoon' due to multiple unfavorable factors, including dry air intrusion, increased vertical wind shear, and disruption caused by Taiwan's terrain. Subsequently, in the early hours of Sunday, as the typhoon center makes landfall on mainland China, further terrain disruption will downgrade it to a 'mild typhoon,' and the threat to Taiwan will subside.