Typhoon Holiday Confirmed? Latest Forecast for Typhoon Bavi Shows 6 Counties May Have 2-Day Closure, Including Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan

The typhoon path of Bavi, closely monitored by meteorologists, is gradually becoming clearer. According to the latest assessment by the Central Weather Bureau and professional meteorological experts, this broad-structured typhoon is approaching Taiwan's offshore waters. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected to begin on Friday evening and will have the most severe impact across Taiwan throughout Saturday (July 10–11). The public's top concerns—preparation of disaster supplies and decisions on work and school suspensions—will enter a critical phase over the coming days.

When will marine and land warnings be issued? When will the typhoon's gale zone make landfall?

The Central Weather Bureau indicates that, based on current forecasts, Typhoon Bavi has the highest probability of passing through the offshore waters north of Taiwan, though there remains a low chance of direct landfall on the main island. The bureau plans to officially issue a marine typhoon warning by noon on the 9th, followed by a land warning late that night as the typhoon draws closer. It is estimated that the typhoon's gale zone will first make contact with land in eastern Taiwan by Friday evening.

Which counties will be hit hardest? How will wind and rain timelines vary across regions?

Meteorologist Chia Hsin-hsing analyzed that Typhoon Bavi has a 7-level gale radius exceeding 350 kilometers, classifying it as an exceptionally large typhoon. Due to its relatively fast movement, the gale zone will rapidly expand upon reaching Taiwan's landmass. Starting Friday evening, Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung will be the first affected, followed by New Taipei, Taipei, and Taoyuan, all of which may enter the gale zone and face wind and rain severe enough to meet work and school suspension criteria.

By Saturday, as the typhoon continues moving northwest, Taiwan will almost certainly be fully enveloped by the gale zone. This day will see the most intense wind and rain, making two consecutive days of suspensions likely. In terms of rainfall distribution, the heaviest rains are expected in mountainous areas south of Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli, as well as in Yilan's mountains. For lowland areas, northern Miaoli, Yilan, and Hualien plains will experience relatively heavier rainfall.

What is the probability of impact for major cities? What are the official standards for typhoon-related closures?

According to the latest '120-hour typhoon gale impact probability' released by the Central Weather Bureau, ten counties across Taiwan have an impact probability exceeding 90%. Keelung City, Taipei City, and Yilan County lead with a 98% chance, followed by New Taipei City and Taoyuan City at 97%. Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City, and Hualien County stand at 94%, Lienchiang County at 93%, and Miaoli County at 91%. The area with the lowest probability is Kinmen County at 52%.

With all 19 counties potentially under the gale zone on Saturday, the decision on work and school suspensions has become a focal point. Some severely affected counties may even implement preemptive disaster-preparedness holidays on Friday if local governments assess the need. According to Taiwan's 'Regulations on Suspension of Work and Classes During Natural Disasters,' the legal criteria for typhoon holidays include: areas where the typhoon's gale radius is forecasted to pass within 4 hours, with average winds reaching level 7 or higher, or gusts reaching level 10 or higher. For rainfall, a predicted 24-hour cumulative rainfall of 200 mm in mountainous areas or 350 mm in lowland areas qualifies. However, specific disaster thresholds vary by county, and final decisions on suspensions remain subject to official announcements by local governments.