Will Northern Taiwan Have Two Days Off Due to Typhoon Bavi? Latest Storm Impact Probability Shows 'Over 90% in 8 Counties,' Work and School Suspension Criteria Revealed

Typhoon Bavi is intensifying as it approaches Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau is scheduled to issue a marine typhoon warning at 2:30 PM today (9th) and a land warning early tomorrow (10th). As the typhoon draws closer, updated probabilities show that eight counties and cities across Taiwan face over 90% chance of being hit by storm-force winds, with northern Taiwan most at risk. Experts warn that wind and rain will significantly intensify from tonight in northern and eastern regions, with Saturday (11th) expected to be the most severely affected period.

Typhoon Bavi Update: Marine and Land Warning Timelines, Wind and Rain Forecast, Storm Impact Probability, and Typhoon Leave Criteria

According to the Central Weather Bureau's 8:00 AM observation today, Typhoon Bavi is located at 18.4 degrees north latitude and 129.8 degrees east longitude, moving northwest at 18 km/h. The central pressure is 925 hPa, with maximum sustained winds of 51 m/s and gusts up to 63 m/s.

Storm radius: 7-level wind radius averages 380 km (330 km northwest, 380 km northeast, 400 km southwest, 420 km southeast); 10-level wind radius averages 180 km.

120-Hour Storm Impact Probability: 8 Counties and Cities Over 90%

The latest '120-hour typhoon storm impact probability for major cities and outlying islands' from the Central Weather Bureau shows the highest risk in northern and eastern regions. Eight counties and cities exceed 90%:

95%–99%: Keelung City at 99% (highest in Taiwan), New Taipei City, Taipei City, and Yilan County at 97%, Taoyuan City at 95%. 90%: Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, Hualien County.

Other major counties and cities: Lienchiang County 89%, Miaoli County 85%, Taichung City 75%, Changhua County 71%, Nantou County 71%, Yunlin County 62%, Taitung County 56%, Chiayi City 55%, Chiayi County 51%. Other central, southern, and outlying areas range between 25% and 50%.

Wind and Rain Timeline: Intensifying Friday Night, Peak Impact Saturday

Meteorological expert Jia Xin-Xing analyzed that due to the typhoon's outer circulation, rainfall will begin in areas north of Hsinchu and Miaoli starting tomorrow (10th). From tonight, the storm zone is expected to first reach northern counties (Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan) and eastern regions, with wind and rain gradually strengthening.

Starting at 5:00 AM Saturday (11th), the 10-level wind zone will approach northern counties and Yilan, covering Miaoli and northward and Yilan by noon. The 7-level wind zone will expand further to areas north of Chiayi and the Hualien-Taitung region, affecting about three-quarters of Taiwan. This day will see the most severe wind and rain.

Work and School Suspension Criteria and Typhoon Leave Assessment

Regarding public concerns about possible work and school suspensions, according to the 'Natural Disaster Work and School Suspension Guidelines,' the official reference criteria are:

Wind Criteria: Average wind force of 7 or higher, or gusts of 10 or higher, expected within 4 hours in areas within the typhoon's storm radius.

Rainfall Criteria: Forecasted 24-hour accumulated rainfall of 350 mm in plains or 200 mm in mountainous areas, with risk of disaster.

Based on current forecasts, some areas may approach suspension thresholds as early as tomorrow night. As wind and rain expand on Saturday, more counties may meet the criteria. However, final decisions on suspensions will be made by individual county and city governments.