High Chance of Typhoon Holiday in Northern Taiwan Tomorrow? Latest Study Shows 4.1x Higher Probability

As Typhoon Bavi approaches, the possibility of work and school suspensions in northern Taiwan—specifically Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan (collectively known as Beibeijitao)—on July 10 has become a major public concern. However, decisions on typhoon holidays are not based solely on meteorological data; political factors also play a significant role. A recent academic study published in the National Chengchi University's Public Administration Journal (Issue 66, March 2024) reveals that mayors running for re-election are approximately 4.1 times more likely to declare a typhoon holiday than those not seeking re-election. This suggests that electoral incentives may influence disaster management decisions.

The study, authored by Chen Chih-chun, analyzed various factors affecting mayoral decisions on work and school suspensions during typhoons. Overall, local leaders made correct decisions—aligned with official meteorological criteria—in 77.8% of cases. However, 22.2% of decisions were questionable, including instances where holidays were declared despite insufficient wind or rain, and cases where no holiday was declared despite meeting the thresholds.

Political factors were particularly significant. The study identifies re-election campaigns as a key variable, with an Exp(B) value of approximately 4.1, indicating that incumbent mayors seeking re-election are far more likely to issue closures. Researchers suggest this behavior stems from vote-maximization motives, as officials may prefer to avoid public backlash from not declaring holidays during severe weather.

From a meteorological standpoint, the study found that when average rainfall reaches 57% of the statutory threshold, the probability of a mayor declaring a holiday rises to 50%. For example, Taipei City’s official rainfall standard is 350 millimeters; thus, an average rainfall of about 199.5 millimeters could trigger a 50% likelihood of closure. In contrast, average wind speed must reach 89% of the legal standard before the probability of closure hits 50%. This indicates that rainfall is a more influential factor than wind in decision-making.

The researchers note that while peak rainfall and gusts represent extreme local conditions, they are less likely to prompt citywide closures unless widespread. Instead, average conditions across the region carry more weight in administrative decisions.

According to current forecasts from the Central Weather Administration, coastal areas—including Beibeijitao—will experience gusts of 8 to 10 meters per second during the day on July 10, escalating to 10–11 meters per second by evening and into Saturday. Northern regions, including Taoyuan and Yilan, may face gusts exceeding 12 meters per second. Under Taiwan’s Natural Disaster Work and School Suspension Guidelines, wind gusts of 10 meters per second or higher qualify as a valid reason for suspending operations.

Combining the academic findings with current weather projections, the meteorological conditions in northern Taiwan are approaching or exceeding the legal thresholds. Coupled with the political incentives of re-election-seeking mayors, the probability of holiday declarations in these areas is notably high. However, final decisions rest with individual municipal governments, which must officially announce suspensions based on legal assessments. The public is advised to monitor official announcements from the Personnel Administration Bureau and local governments.