Memory Prices Won't Brake Yet! TrendForce: Q3 Server DRAM Prices Could Surge Up to 18%, Hitting These Customers Hardest

AI server demand continues to drive the memory market upward. Research firm TrendForce (Institute of Technology Research) released its latest findings today (9th), forecasting that server DRAM contract prices in Q3 2026 will increase by 13% to 18% quarter-on-quarter.

Although some memory manufacturers have already reflected price increases in Q2, and several U.S. cloud service providers (CSPs) have signed multi-year long-term contracts—limiting further price hikes for major customers—there remains a possibility that manufacturers will continue to raise prices due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances.

TrendForce notes that CPU supply shortages have affected server assembly schedules, causing DRAM inventory levels among U.S. CSPs to gradually rise in Q2. However, large cloud operators have not slowed their procurement pace, as market expectations anticipate CPU supply improvements from the second half of 2026 into 2027, enabling expanded server assembly volumes.

Will There Be Supply Shortage Pressure in 2027?

TrendForce analyzes that supply-demand tightness in the server DRAM market for 2027 is becoming increasingly evident. As a result, CSPs are actively increasing their demand requests to memory manufacturers. On the supply side, major memory manufacturers began presenting their 2027 supply plans to customers in late Q2. Preliminary estimates indicate that the annual bit supply growth for RDIMMs will be only around 15% to 20%, significantly lagging behind the growth rate of server CPUs.

This implies that even buyers who have secured basic supply for the second half of 2026 may still increase inventory early to hedge against 2027 supply risks, creating additional buffer demand. In other words, server DRAM prices remain supported in the short term, and market supply-demand pressures have not fully eased.

Long-Term Contracts Limit Price Increases—Non-Contract Customers Become Primary Targets

Notably, some large CSPs have locked in supply and pricing through multi-year long-term contracts, limiting memory manufacturers’ ability to raise prices for these customers. TrendForce forecasts that starting from Q3 2026, the source of server DRAM price increases will gradually shift toward customers without long-term contracts, as well as additional supply provided to contracted customers but outside original contract terms.

TrendForce also expects that from the second half of 2026 to the second half of 2027, overall server DRAM contract prices will continue to rise quarter-on-quarter, but the rate of increase will gradually moderate. In other words, the price hike trend has not ended, but the market may no longer see the sharp jumps observed in previous quarters.

Module Capacity Mix Adjustment—Low-Capacity Product Shipments Expected to Rise

Beyond price changes, the capacity mix of server memory modules is also shifting. TrendForce points out that due to procurement cost controls and CPU supply timing, some CSPs and server OEMs have gradually adjusted their RDIMM procurement configurations since the first half of 2026, downgrading some specifications from 96GB and 128GB to 32GB and 64GB.

TrendForce expects this specification shift to gradually reflect in manufacturers’ shipment mix starting in Q3, with low-capacity module shipments increasing quarter-on-quarter, and the previous decline in bit share of shipments slowing. Overall, AI server demand remains the key driver supporting server DRAM prices, but under long-term contracts, cost controls, and supply mix adjustments, the market’s upward trend is entering a phase of more refined structural changes.

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