Typhoon Holiday Confirmed for July 10? Bavi's Intensity and Path Shift! Heavy Rain to Purple Alert Levels – Latest Updates on Work and School Suspensions Across Counties: Over 90% Impact Probability for Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Yilan, and Taoyuan

The Central Weather Bureau has issued the latest typhoon update, confirming that Typhoon Bavi is intensifying as it approaches Taiwan. As of this morning (9th), the typhoon's center is located 1,010 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, moving northwest at 18 kilometers per hour. Although environmental conditions have hindered further development, causing the storm's intensity to weaken slightly over the past six hours—now at the lower threshold of a 'severe typhoon'—its expansive circulation and massive wind field remain a serious threat.

The Keelung Weather Station issued a warning on Facebook, stating that Keelung's northern coastline will face direct impact and will be fully enveloped within the radius of 10-level storm-force winds, potentially experiencing gusts exceeding Category 12. The 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum – Weather Emergency' emphasized that although Bavi may weaken as it nears Taiwan, its exceptionally large wind field means regions close to the storm's center—including Taipei to Changhua, Yilan, northern Hualien, and Matsu—must prepare at the 'highest level of readiness.'

According to the latest data from the Central Weather Bureau, Typhoon Bavi has a central pressure of 925 hPa and a maximum sustained wind speed of 51 meters per second. Despite weakening, the typhoon maintains a 380-kilometer radius for its 7-level gale-force winds and a 180-kilometer radius for 10-level storm-force winds. The latest forecast path has converged toward the area between Taiwan's Northeast Cape and northern offshore waters, meaning a significant portion of Taiwan will remain under the storm's influence.

As of 10:00 a.m. on the 9th, the 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum – Weather Emergency' reported a slight northward adjustment in Bavi's projected path, with the highest probability now indicating a close pass near Taiwan's Northeast Cape, reducing the likelihood of direct landfall. However, the forum stressed that whether Bavi successfully turns northwest today will determine whether Taiwan experiences a 'grazing pass,' a 'northwest typhoon,' or a 'direct hit'—each scenario being critically important.

The typhoon's wind field is expected to gradually envelop Taiwan starting Friday evening (10th) into late night. The most intense impact will occur on Saturday (11th) when the storm's center passes near or along the Northeast Cape. The typhoon is then expected to accelerate away from Taiwan by Saturday evening.

In the Central Weather Bureau's latest 120-hour typhoon impact probability forecast, northern and eastern Taiwan are most at risk. The five counties of Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan, and Yilan all face over 95% impact probability, with Keelung reaching 99%. Hsinchu and Hualien have a 90% probability, while Chiayi, Taitung, and Lienchiang (Matsu) range between 50% and 89%.

The Keelung Weather Station reiterated its warning: as the typhoon center passes near the Northeast Cape, Keelung's northern coast will be directly hit and fully within the 10-level storm-force wind radius, potentially experiencing gusts exceeding Category 12. Residents are urged to prepare for severe weather conditions including strong winds, torrential rain, high waves, and storm surges, and to complete all typhoon preparedness during the golden window of time.

Meteorological expert Chia Hsin-hsing analyzed on YouTube that the typhoon's wind field will begin affecting Taiwan from Friday evening. The storm will first make landfall in Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung, followed by New Taipei, Taipei, and Taoyuan. These six counties are expected to approach or meet the legal thresholds for work and school suspensions by Friday night. By Saturday, all 19 counties and cities on Taiwan's main island may meet suspension criteria.

The Central Weather Bureau issued a sea typhoon warning at 2:30 p.m. today. According to the latest rainfall forecast, multiple counties and cities should prepare for heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from July 10 to 11.

The 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum – Weather Emergency' warned that despite Bavi weakening, its vast wind field means most of Taiwan will be affected regardless of whether the center makes landfall. The forum specifically highlighted Taipei to Changhua, Yilan, northern Hualien, and Matsu as high-risk zones requiring 'maximum preparedness.' The public is urged to monitor the Central Weather Bureau's official website for real-time updates.

Latest statements from the four mayors of the Taipei metropolitan area (Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan):

- Taipei City (Chiang Wan-an): Will follow standard operating procedures and coordinate with neighboring cities. Emphasized that decisions will be made by 8 p.m. the previous day, with a 'full-day suspension' as the default unless exceptional circumstances arise.

- New Taipei City (Hou Yu-ih): Has held two typhoon preparedness meetings and inspected flood control projects. Stressed close cooperation through the regional governance platform, with the emergency response center on 24-hour standby.

- Keelung City (Hsieh Kuo-liang): Revised suspension criteria in March, lowering the 24-hour rainfall threshold from 350mm to 200mm (regardless of mountainous or flat areas). A 'zonal assessment and tiered activation' mechanism will be triggered upon reaching the threshold.

- Taoyuan City (Chang Shan-cheng): Will establish an emergency response center at the Fire Department this evening. Called Bavi a 'rare large typhoon in recent years' and emphasized proactive deployment.

Legal thresholds for work and school suspensions under the 'Natural Disaster Work and Class Suspension Guidelines':

- Wind criteria: If typhoon-force winds (7-level sustained or 10-level gusts) are expected within four hours in a region.

- Rainfall criteria: If 24-hour cumulative rainfall reaches local thresholds (typically 200mm in mountainous areas, 350mm in flatlands; Keelung has lowered to 200mm uniformly), and damage or risk of damage is evident.

Additionally, suspensions may be declared even if thresholds are not met if terrain or rainfall causes transportation, power, or water disruptions affecting public safety.