Will Typhoon Bavi's Landfall Be Delayed? Taiwan Braces for Sudden Weather Shift – Fan Page Warns: 'Still Dangerous Even If It Weakens and Looks Ugly'

Typhoon Bavi continues moving toward the northern waters of Taiwan on July 10, with the Central Weather Administration (CWA) issuing both sea and land typhoon alerts. Work and school have been suspended across multiple counties and cities in Taiwan today.

Regarding the typhoon's latest status, at 8:00 a.m. today, Bavi's center was located about 700 kilometers east of Eluanbi, moving northwest at approximately 25 kilometers per hour. In response, the weather-focused Facebook page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' issued a warning in its early morning post. Although Bavi has weakened to a moderate typhoon, the page emphasized that people should not become complacent just because the storm has 'weakened or become ugly,' urging continued vigilance and preparedness.

【Work and School Suspension on July 10】

- Suspended all day: Keelung City, Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City, Miaoli County, Lienchiang County - Suspended after 6:00 p.m.: Taichung City, Nantou County - Normal operations: Changhua County, Yunlin County, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Penghu County, Kinmen County, and Lüdao, Lanyu

【When Will Impacts Be Strongest?】

According to the CWA's latest update on the morning of July 10, Bavi's maximum sustained wind speed near the center is 45 meters per second (about Category 14), with gusts up to 55 meters per second (about Category 16). The radius of 7-level gale-force winds extends about 380 kilometers, with a possibility of slight intensification in the short term.

The most severe wind and rain are expected from the evening of July 10 through the daytime of July 11. Localized heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is possible in northern Taiwan, Yilan, and mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan. Coastal open areas and outlying islands may experience strong gusts of 10 to 12 levels or higher.

【When Will It Make Landfall?】

The CWA noted that some areas may experience brief periods of calm or even sunshine during the day, but this does not indicate a weakening of the typhoon's influence. The Taiwan Typhoon Forum pointed out around midnight on July 10 that due to deteriorating environmental conditions, Bavi has weakened to a moderate typhoon, and its movement has slightly slowed over the past six hours. As a result, the storm's outer bands are expected to reach Taiwan's landmass later, likely in the late evening. Over the past six hours, Bavi's track has slightly shifted northward as it approached Taiwan, with only minor north-south adjustments expected going forward.

【When Will It Exit Taiwan?】

The likelihood of Bavi making direct landfall or becoming a 'northwest typhoon' has significantly decreased. Current forecasts suggest it will pass through the offshore waters north of Taiwan between noon and afternoon on July 11, with the storm's outer bands gradually moving away from Taiwan's landmass by the evening of July 11.

The fan page concluded by emphasizing that even though Bavi has weakened to a moderate typhoon, its circulation remains large and the storm field extensive. As a result, significant wind and rain will still affect all parts of Taiwan, though the intensity may shift from 'violent' to 'strong.' Additionally, some forecast models suggest a brief period of intensification as Bavi passes near Miyakojima, though this remains uncertain.