Wei An Perspective: 120,000 Fewer Births in 12 Years - Taiwan's Population Crisis Worsens, National Security Risks Rise

In December last year, the world's richest man, Elon Musk, retweeted a post about Taiwan's population crisis on X (formerly Twitter) and left a short comment: "Population collapse continues to accelerate." At the time, many people took this statement as a warning for the future. However, seven months later, Taiwan's latest population data shows that the population situation has not improved but has instead become more severe than when Musk issued the warning. According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, the number of newborns in Taiwan in June this year was only 7,324, a decrease of 1,644 from the same month last year, a decrease of 18.3%. The number of newborns in the first half of this year was 46,344, a decrease of 9,031 from the same period last year, and the population has been negative for 30 consecutive months. Based on the current trend, the number of newborns this year is extremely likely to drop below 100,000 for the first time, and it may not even be able to hold 90,000. What Musk saw last year was a downward curve; seven months later, this curve did not stop falling but continued to hit new lows. If we look at the situation over a longer period, the speed at which Taiwan's population is declining is even more shocking. In 1984, the annual birth population was 371,008; in 1994, it was 322,938; in 2004, it dropped to 216,419; and in 2014, it was still 210,383. However, if the annual birth population this year is around 90,000, compared to 2014, in just 12 years, Taiwan will have 120,000 fewer newborns each year, and the birth population will have decreased by more than 50%. Twelve years ago, there were still 210,000 newborns each year; now, the annual birth population may not even be able to hold 90,000. On average, one out of every two children who would have been born is now missing. In other words, Taiwan's population problem is not gradually worsening but has been accelerating in the past decade or so. The "accelerate" that Musk mentioned is now being proven step by step by the latest population data. This rate of population shrinkage will form a triple impact in the next 20 years. For Taiwan, this triple impact is not just a social problem but directly relates to the country's overall competitiveness and security. The first impact is the continuous shrinkage of the labor force. When the population of each generation is shrinking, labor shortages in enterprises, labor shortages in industries, and insufficient manpower in public services will gradually become the norm of the entire society. Taiwan's long-established science and technology industry, high-value-added manufacturing industry, as well as medical care, long-term care, education, and various public services will face increasingly severe manpower shortages. The continuous decline of the labor population also means that overall economic growth will be limited. Even if enterprises are willing to invest, even if the market still has demand, without sufficient manpower, it will not be possible to support the development of future industries. The second impact is the rapid imbalance of aging. The truly terrifying aspect of low birth rates is not just that children are becoming fewer, but that the proportion of the elderly population is rapidly increasing. The future is not everyone slowly aging together, but an increasingly smaller number of young people having to jointly support an increasingly larger elderly population. Medical expenses, long-term care, pension systems, and social welfare will all face heavy pressure. The overall financial burden of society will also become heavier as the population structure changes. The third impact, which is also the national security dilemma that Taiwan cannot avoid, is that population negative growth is already a common problem faced globally, with South Korea, Japan, and Singapore all facing a low birth rate crisis. But Taiwan is more special than most countries because we are simultaneously facing the demand for defense personnel brought by geopolitical factors. While other countries are mainly worried about labor shortages, Taiwan must simultaneously face "enterprise shortages" and "military shortages." Currently, voluntary service recruitment has long been below target, and the young population aged 18 to 22 is also rapidly decreasing. In the future, even if the conscription system is adjusted, the service period is extended, or even the scope of service is expanded, it will be difficult to change the reality of the continuous shrinkage of the population base. If the service period is extended to make up for the shortage of personnel, the already insufficient labor force will be further withdrawn; if the service period is not extended, there may be a problem of insufficient personnel. Economic development and defense needs will be simultaneously impacted by changes in the population structure. The geopolitical security pressure that Taiwan faces leaves us with almost no room to retreat. Other countries may have the option to reduce the size of their military and readjust their defense strategies, but Taiwan does not have such options. In today's uncertain cross-strait situation, the need for defense personnel is always present, while population collapse is gradually eroding this most basic strategic resource. No matter how the system is reformed, the same problem will eventually be encountered - there are not enough people. Weapons can be purchased, systems can be modified, technology can progress, but the population cannot be replenished in a short period of time. A child not born today will mean one less labor force, one less taxpayer, and possibly one less defense personnel in twenty years. The greatest cruelty of the population problem lies in its irreversible time difference. Even if the most successful fertility encouragement policy is launched today, it will take twenty years to truly fill the labor gap. And the future twenty years of personnel, labor population, and social support capabilities are actually already determined by today's birth population. Therefore, the population crisis is no longer a problem that can be solved by a single ministry such as the Ministry of Health and Welfare, the Ministry of the Interior, or the Ministry of Labor, nor is it a trend that can be completely reversed within the term of any government. This is a structural crisis that has already begun and is still accelerating. The real problem is not whether the population crisis will occur, but how Taiwan can maintain economic development, social operation, and national security in the face of continuous population decline and the continued existence of geopolitical pressure. Last December, Musk issued a warning. Seven months later, the latest population statistics tell us that this warning did not fall on deaf ears, and the situation is more serious than it was then. Twelve years have passed, and 120,000 fewer newborns have been lost. What has been lost is not only the future labor force, future taxpayers, and future defense personnel, but also the population base that supports the long-term development of the country. What Taiwan really needs to face is not just the low birth rate, but the comprehensive economic and national security risks brought by the accelerating population crisis.