Weather: After Typhoon Bavi, Another Typhoon Approaching? Low Pressure Near Guam Developing, Could Become Typhoon by Weekend

As the strong Typhoon Bavi gradually moves away, signs of a new tropical system developing in the Northwest Pacific have emerged. The weather-focused social media page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Express' pointed out on the 20th that a low-pressure system is gradually forming in the waters southwest of Guam. Over the next few days, the system may continue to improve its circulation structure. If sea and atmospheric conditions cooperate, it could reach typhoon intensity by this weekend, and the Northwest Pacific may once again enter a phase of heightened tropical activity.

Predicted path偏向toward the waters north of Luzon Island

The page analyzed that, based on current medium- to long-range forecast signals, this system is more likely to move toward northern Philippines and pass near the northern side of Luzon Island. However, the system is still located far offshore, and its consolidation remains unstable. Therefore, its future track and potential intensity cannot be determined at this stage.

Global forecast models continue to adjust, and the path may still change

The page noted that numerical models from various countries still differ in their predictions regarding the system's intensity and path, and forecast results have not yet fully converged. Over the coming days, as the low-pressure center becomes clearer, simulations will become more reliable. Thus, the currently indicated path may still change as new data is incorporated.

Central Weather Bureau suggests tropical depression may form in latter half of the week

The Central Weather Bureau stated that noticeable convective cloud clusters have already gathered in the waters southeast of the Philippines. Development conditions are expected to gradually improve in the latter half of this week, creating an opportunity for a tropical depression to form, which may subsequently intensify further. Based on current data, the system is generally expected to move northwestward, gradually approaching the waters around Luzon Island.

Impact on Taiwan remains uncertain

Since the tropical system is still far from Taiwan, the Central Weather Bureau stated that it cannot yet confirm whether it will directly affect Taiwan. Further observation of the system's formation location, development intensity, and movement direction will be necessary to assess whether Taiwan's surrounding wind fields and rainfall will be affected.