Will Another Typhoon Hit Taiwan This Weekend? Latest Typhoon Path Potential Map Released – Experts Warn: Prepare for Rain Across Taiwan for These Three Days

Meteorological expert Jia Xin-Xing pointed out that a small disturbance, 92W, is brewing east of the Philippines. According to the latest European ensemble model, the system is expected to move northward toward the northern Philippines on Thursday and Friday. After entering the northern part of the South China Sea, environmental conditions will improve, making Friday and Saturday the most likely period for the system to develop into a typhoon. If it successfully forms into a typhoon, Hualien and Taitung regions could be affected by the typhoon's outer moisture as early as Friday evening through Sunday, bringing localized brief showers. Prior to this, scattered brief showers have already begun in western regions since Wednesday, with more noticeable rainfall in mountainous areas.

The typhoon system is expected to move northward on Thursday and enter the South China Sea, where typhoon formation chances peak on Friday and Saturday. According to Jia Xin-Xing's analysis of the European ensemble model, disturbance 92W is projected to move northward toward the northern Philippines on Thursday and Friday, entering the northern South China Sea. Once in the South China Sea, improved environmental conditions make typhoon development most likely on Friday and Saturday. If it develops successfully, this will become the most directly impactful weather system for Taiwan in recent times.

Jia Xin-Xing warns the public to continuously monitor the latest forecast updates. As this is still a long-range forecast with many variables, the system's development can only be confirmed as the potential typhoon approaches. Jia Xin-Xing predicts, based on the European ensemble model, that disturbance 92W will move northward on Thursday and Friday, with a chance of developing into a typhoon after entering the South China Sea on Friday and Saturday. Latest typhoon path potential map. (Image: Caiyuanzi's Weather Line)

Rain will arrive in western Taiwan before the typhoon fully forms. A frontal system is already bringing rain over Taiwan. From Wednesday to early Friday morning, western regions will be mostly cloudy with scattered brief showers. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, localized brief showers are expected in mountainous areas across the island, with scattered showers elsewhere. Hikers and those planning outdoor mountain activities should allow flexibility in their schedules.

On Friday afternoon, the rain area will expand further, with localized brief showers expected in mountainous areas south of Taoyuan and south of Chiayi. This is a 'precursor rain' ahead of the typhoon's outer moisture fully affecting Taiwan, reminding the public to prepare for rain early.

Starting Friday evening, the typhoon's outer moisture will officially move into Taiwan. Hualien and Taitung will be the first affected, turning to localized brief showers and continuing through Sunday. On Saturday, rainfall will expand further, with showers in Hualien, Taitung, and Pingtung, and scattered brief showers from the Northeast Coast to Yilan and south of Hsinchu. Rain bands across eastern and northern Taiwan will gradually form.

Sunday will see the most widespread rainfall. Areas south of Changhua and the Hualien-Taitung region will continue to see localized rain, with afternoon localized brief showers also expected in western regions. If the typhoon system fully approaches Taiwan by then, rainfall could be stronger than expected. Mountainous terrain in Pingtung and south of Chiayi will enhance rainfall effects, requiring special vigilance.

The areas most directly affected by this typhoon system are Hualien, Taitung, and Pingtung, where weekend rainfall probability and intensity will be highest. Northern regions (Northeast Coast, Yilan, south of Hsinchu) will see increasing rain starting Saturday, while western regions won't see significant rainfall until Sunday afternoon.

The public should carry rain gear when going out, especially travelers to Hualien and Taitung who may need to completely adjust their plans. Hikers in mountainous areas of Pingtung and south of Chiayi must carefully assess weather conditions. For trips scheduled from Friday evening to Sunday, strong postponement is recommended. Even if the typhoon does not fully form, rainfall from outer moisture will still impact various regions.