Another Typhoon This Weekend? Tropical Depression May Form by Friday — Experts Reveal Path Could Shift North Closer to Taiwan

The Central Weather Administration announced today (21st) that the coming week will remain hot and sunny, though afternoon thunderstorms are expected. A tropical disturbance southeast of the Philippines is forecast to strengthen into a tropical depression by the 24th, potentially developing into the 12th typhoon of the year, 'Noul'. If so, Hualien-Taitung and Hengchun Peninsula may face higher chances of heavy rainfall.

Lin Hsiao-ju, a meteorologist at Weather Risk Company, posted on Facebook that a tropical disturbance is developing east of the Philippines. Some forecast models suggest the system could move toward the area south of the Bashi Strait to near Luzon Island over the weekend, bringing it closer to Taiwan. Moisture from its outer circulation may gradually affect southeastern Taiwan and the Hengchun Peninsula, and the path could shift further north.

Lin emphasized that while most forecast models indicate the system will move toward Luzon and into the South China Sea—reducing the likelihood of direct impact on Taiwan—there remains a possibility of a northward track adjustment, bringing it closer to Taiwan. He urged the public to monitor the latest weather updates.

Meteorologist Chia Hsin-hsing also analyzed the disturbance, noting it is moving northward toward the Philippines and is expected to enter the South China Sea by Friday or Saturday, with a chance of intensifying into Typhoon Noul. From Friday evening, increased moisture will affect central and southern regions and the eastern half of Taiwan, with localized afternoon showers in western areas. European weather models suggest the system will move westward toward northern Luzon, entering the South China Sea with favorable development conditions, increasing the likelihood of typhoon formation.

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