Weather: Another Typhoon? Experts Reveal the Earliest Possible Formation Date—Two Regions to Face Heaviest Rainfall

Due to subsiding southwest winds, Taiwan is experiencing high temperatures and hot weather across the island, with Taitung County at risk of foehn winds. The Central Weather Administration has issued high-temperature advisories: orange alerts for New Taipei City and Hualien County, indicating a high probability of consecutive days with temperatures reaching 36°C or higher. Yellow alerts are in effect for Changhua County, Yunlin County, Tainan City, Pingtung County, and Taitung County, urging vigilance against extreme heat exceeding 36°C.

Meteorologist Wu De-rong stated that due to southwest winds and moisture from the south, scattered short-duration rainfall may occur in southern regions. With the Pacific high pressure system relatively weak and atmospheric conditions unstable, strong convection is likely to develop over mountainous areas in the afternoon and may spread to some lowland areas. The public is advised to remain alert for lightning, strong gusts, and sudden heavy downpours. Prior to rainfall, conditions will remain hot, so sun protection and heatstroke prevention measures are essential.

Regarding weekend weather changes and rainfall hotspots: from tomorrow through the 24th, as southwest winds and southern moisture decrease and the Pacific high pressure strengthens slightly, weather across Taiwan will gradually stabilize, becoming clear and hot. Afternoon scattered short-duration showers will be mostly confined to mountainous areas.

Meteorological expert Jia Xin-xing analyzed that from early Wednesday to Friday, western Taiwan will experience overcast skies with occasional isolated brief rains. Specifically, on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, localized short-duration rains are expected in mountainous areas across the island, with isolated rainfall possible in other regions.

Regarding tropical system development: concerning tropical disturbance 92W east of the Philippines, Jia predicts the system will move northward past the Philippines and enter the northern South China Sea, where favorable environmental conditions may allow it to develop into a typhoon between Friday and Saturday.

Wu De-rong noted that latest global model simulations indicate the disturbance will pass through the northern tip of Luzon Island around 8 PM on the 25th, entering the South China Sea and moving toward the Hong Kong-Macau and Guangdong regions. European and American AI models suggest the system will move relatively quickly, with the American model showing the slowest speed and a more southerly track, while the European model indicates a more northerly path with moderate speed. Overall track uncertainty remains, requiring close monitoring.

In terms of rainfall impact, Wu forecasts increased rainfall probability in eastern Taiwan starting the evening of the 24th. On the 25th and 26th, influenced by the outer cloud bands of the tropical system, rainfall will gradually expand, bringing significant precipitation to eastern and southern Taiwan. On the 27th and 28th, due to southerly winds and residual moisture from the tropical system, localized short-duration rains are expected in southern Taiwan, with afternoon strong convection possible across the island.

Jia Xin-xing added that from Friday afternoon, localized brief rains are expected in mountainous areas south of Taoyuan and south of Chiayi. From Friday evening through Sunday, as outer moisture moves in, Hualien and Taitung will shift to localized brief rains. On Saturday, showers are expected in Hualien-Taitung and Pingtung, with isolated brief rains from the Northeast Corner to Yilan and south of Hsinchu. On Sunday, localized rains are expected south of Changhua and in Hualien-Taitung, with afternoon localized brief showers possible across western Taiwan.