Foxconn Predicts the Era of Full Autonomous Driving by 2040! EV Strategy Chief: Future Children May Not Even Know What a Driver's License Is

Foxconn Group participated today (21st) in the '2026 World Digital Summit' (GDS2026) held in Tokyo, Japan, where Jun Guan, the company's Electric Vehicle Strategy Chief, delivered a keynote speech. Guan stated, 'The ultimate form of automobiles is fully autonomous driving,' predicting that by 2040, under specific conditions, L4-level or higher autonomous driving technology—requiring no human driver—will be deployed in 80% of vehicles.

According to a report by the Nikkei, Guan emphasized that autonomous driving holds a greater competitive advantage in electric vehicles (EVs) compared to hybrid vehicles (HV). Integrating autonomous driving into HVs is less suitable due to power consumption and other factors. 'Therefore, the compatibility between autonomous driving and electric vehicles is far superior to that with hybrid vehicles,' he said.

What are the benefits of full autonomous driving? Guan explained that autonomous systems reduce abrupt accelerations and harsh driving behaviors, thereby minimizing component wear, extending vehicle lifespan, and reducing fatal accidents to about one-tenth to one-twentieth of current levels. This shift will also impact auto insurance premiums.

Guan noted that as new car demand declines, younger generations may find driver's licenses increasingly unnecessary. He predicted, 'Children born today may grow up not even knowing what a driver's license is.' Future vehicle designs will increasingly optimize for autonomous driving, reducing differentiation among manufacturers and potentially eliminating the need for automakers to produce their own vehicles.

Guan stressed that the key to widespread adoption of full autonomy lies in 'reliability.' Currently, even the best-performing automakers experience one breakdown every 30,000 kilometers on average. He expects this figure to improve significantly in the future. As AI for autonomous driving becomes more widespread and standardized, onboard sensors can be greatly simplified, driving down costs. The current system cost of approximately $20,000 could drop to between $2,000 and $3,000.

Guan previously served at Nissan Motor, where he accumulated 33 years of industry experience, including as Chief Deputy Operating Officer. Foxconn, renowned for electronics and ICT equipment manufacturing, has been aggressively expanding its EV business and deepening partnerships with Japanese automakers. In addition to supplying passenger EVs to Mitsubishi Motors, Foxconn will jointly establish a bus business company with Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation in the second half of 2026.