Will Yageo and UMC Keep Rising? Expert Predicts 'Next Uptrend Starting Point': Once Election Rally Kicks In, Market Will Hit New Highs

On the 22nd, Taiwan's stock market extended its rebound, closing up 592.91 points at 44,825.78, with a trading value of NT$982.645 billion. Senior analyst Zhou Dai-Yun posted on Facebook, noting that while Yageo appears to be surging, the stock has fallen over NT$200 from its previous peak above NT$1,000, and its recent rebound of just over NT$10 has barely recovered a fraction of its losses. Holding the stock long-term in hopes of breaking new highs to recover losses is essentially impossible, he argues—instead, traders should focus on capturing price differentials.

Zhou explains that many investors are now caught in a dilemma: sell and risk missing out on a real uptrend, or hold and risk another sharp reversal that erases paper gains. This psychological strain, he says, is more exhausting than a continuous downtrend. For Yageo, he emphasizes that the current rally faces strong resistance around NT$800—a level where heavy selling pressure from previous trapped investors is likely to emerge. While margin positions have largely been liquidated and the share structure has stabilized, making this range suitable for long-term accumulation, he advises against chasing the rally. Instead, investors should wait for pullbacks to enter gradually.

Regarding UMC, Zhou notes the rebound is part of a broader foundry sector recovery but remains a short-term oversold bounce within a still-intact downtrend. Many investors are rushing to buy the dip, but he sees no urgency. Weekly chart corrections typically take longer than one or two weeks. For long-term investors, a safer entry point would be after the stock retests support below NT$100. Buying now risks being trapped again if the stock revisits its lows.

When will the next real uptrend begin? Zhou points to improving fundamentals: rising AI server demand for passive components and recovering utilization rates in mature semiconductor processes. The current phase is a normal correction after a prior rally, and the longer it consolidates, the stronger the subsequent move. He expects the next major upswing to emerge around late August to mid-September, aligning with the traditional 'Mid-Autumn market shift' pattern. Moreover, with the year-end 'Nine-in-One' local elections approaching, the election-driven rally typically starts 2–3 months in advance.

Zhou concludes that once this consolidation ends and the election rally gains momentum, the broader market will inevitably reach new highs, lifting many individual stocks along the way. Current volatility will, in hindsight, appear minor. For traders: short-term players should trade the bounce quickly and exit early, reducing positions as prices rise. Long-term investors should avoid full exposure, instead accumulating gradually on dips with patience—never fighting the market or their own capital.