Latest Path of Typhoon Noul! Closest Approach to Taiwan on This Day, 4 Counties with Highest Impact Risk, and When Taiwan's Weather Will Turn

Meteorological conditions are showing new developments, as Tropical Depression TD13 continues to intensify and consolidate its structure. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that the system could strengthen further as early as tomorrow (23rd), becoming this year’s 12th typhoon, “Noul” (named by North Korea). According to the weather-focused social media page “Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency,” guided by the Pacific high-pressure system, the storm will steadily move in a northwest-west direction, reaching the waters northeast of the Philippines on Friday, passing through the Bashi Strait on Saturday, and gradually heading toward Guangdong, China, by Sunday.

Experts analyze that while the overall predicted path remains relatively stable, there is still slight north-south fluctuation expected as the system crosses the Bashi Strait. This minor variation will determine how close the storm passes to Taiwan’s landmass and is a key factor influencing the subsequent intensity of wind and rain.

Tropical Depression TD13 Forms! When Will Typhoon Noul Emerge?

As the tropical system gradually approaches, weather patterns across Taiwan will begin to shift significantly starting Friday. The “Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency” explains that on Friday, as the outer circulation draws near, coastal winds and waves will noticeably intensify. Hualien, Taitung, and the Hengchun Peninsula will see brief showers, while other regions should remain alert for afternoon thunderstorms.

By Saturday, the system will reach its closest point to Taiwan, with abundant moisture. Rainfall probability will sharply increase in Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, and the southern Kaohsiung-Pingtung region. Localized heavy rainfall is possible in the Hualien-Taitung area and Hengchun Peninsula, while other areas may also experience intense afternoon thunderstorms. Meteorological experts add that the actual severity of wind and rain will depend on the system’s exact distance from Taiwan’s main island as it passes through the Bashi Strait.

Weekend Rain and Wind Distribution: Which Areas Should Brace for Heavy Rain?

According to the latest 120-hour typhoon impact probability statistics released by the Central Weather Administration, four counties in Taiwan exceed a 20% risk threshold. Hengchun leads with 34%, followed by Kaohsiung City and Kinmen County at 25%, and Pingtung County at 20%. All other counties remain below 20%.

Regarding public concerns about work and school suspension criteria, Taiwan’s “Regulations on Suspension of Work and Classes Due to Natural Disasters” stipulate that suspensions are triggered if meteorological forecasts indicate that a typhoon’s gale radius may pass within four hours over a region, with average winds reaching Beaufort 7 or higher, or gusts reaching Beaufort 10 or higher. Alternatively, if cumulative rainfall over the next 24 hours is predicted to reach 200 mm in mountainous areas or 350 mm in flatlands, and damage has already occurred or is imminent, the suspension criteria are met. However, the final decision to suspend operations rests with individual county and city governments based on actual conditions.