Weather Forecast / Typhoon 'Noul' Forming Soon! Closest Approach to Taiwan in the Next 2 Days – 'Heavy Rainfall Continues' – Will Offices and Schools Close? Full Week Weather Outlook

According to observations by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA), Tropical Depression TD13 is moving northwestward. Meteorological expert Wu Derong stated on the 23rd that this tropical depression is expected to strengthen into this year's 12th mild typhoon, 'Noul,' by the morning of the 24th. It is projected to pass through the Bashi Strait from the afternoon of the 24th to the 25th, with its storm area skimming the southern waters of Taiwan, and is expected to make landfall in the Guangdong region early on the 26th.

Due to the influence of the typhoon's outer cloud system, the probability of rainfall in eastern Taiwan will significantly increase starting from the evening of the 24th. Rainfall will intensify over the weekend in southern and eastern regions, requiring vigilance.

Typhoon 'Noul' is expected to form by the morning of the 24th. According to the European (ECMWF) ensemble model simulations, at 2 a.m. on the 23rd, the center was located at 15.2 degrees north latitude and 130.5 degrees east longitude, moving northwest at 27 km/h.

The typhoon is expected to pass through the Bashi Strait from the afternoon of the 24th to the 25th, with its storm area affecting the southern waters of Taiwan. It is expected to make landfall in the Guangdong area early on the 26th.

Wu Derong noted that the 'potential track forecast map' shows a 'degree of uncertainty' in the typhoon's path, as indicated by the red box and scattered forecast lines. Continuous monitoring of path adjustments and changes in impact intensity is required.

One-Week Weather Forecast: Rain from Friday, Clearing by Next Wednesday

Wu stated that today and tomorrow (23rd–24th) will see reduced moisture, with the Pacific high pressure slightly strengthening, leading to gradually stable weather. Sunny and hot conditions are expected nationwide, requiring sun protection and heatstroke prevention. There remains a chance of localized afternoon thunderstorms, mainly in mountainous areas.

The latest model simulations indicate a significant increase in rainfall probability in eastern Taiwan starting from the evening of the 24th. From Saturday to Sunday (25th–26th), the outer cloud system of Typhoon Noul will affect the region, gradually expanding the rainfall area. Eastern, southeastern, and southern Taiwan should be particularly cautious of heavy rain. Central Taiwan may experience occasional localized showers, while northern Taiwan will be least affected, with daytime temperatures remaining high.

From Monday to Tuesday (27th–28th), southerly winds and residual moisture from Noul will bring localized rainfall to southeastern and southern Taiwan. Strong convection may occur in various regions during the afternoon, requiring caution. Prior to rainfall, weather will remain hot.

From Wednesday to Thursday (29th–30th), moisture will decrease and the Pacific high pressure will strengthen slightly, resulting in clear and hot conditions nationwide. There remains a chance of localized afternoon thunderstorms in mountainous areas.

Rainfall Trend for July 23–29 (Image: CWA)

Weekly Weather and Rainfall Schedule (July 23–30)

Date: July 23 (Thu) – July 24 (Fri) daytime Weather Trend & Rain Areas: Reduced moisture and slightly strengthened Pacific high pressure lead to clear and hot weather nationwide. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible in mountainous areas. Precautions: Sun protection and heatstroke prevention.

Date: July 24 (Fri) evening onwards Weather Trend & Rain Areas: Increased rainfall probability in eastern Taiwan due to approaching outer cloud system of the typhoon. Precautions: Residents in eastern Taiwan are advised to carry umbrellas when going out.

Date: July 25 (Sat) – July 26 (Sun) Weather Trend & Rain Areas: Direct impact from Noul's outer cloud system! Rain expands. Eastern, southeastern, and southern Taiwan should be especially cautious. Central Taiwan may see occasional showers. Northern Taiwan least affected, with high daytime temperatures. Precautions: Guard against localized heavy rain in southern and eastern Taiwan.

Date: July 27 (Mon) – July 28 (Tue) Weather Trend & Rain Areas: Southerly winds and residual moisture from Noul bring localized rain to southeastern and southern Taiwan. Strong convection possible across regions in the afternoon. Precautions: Hot before rain, beware of afternoon thunderstorms.

Date: July 29 (Wed) – July 30 (Thu) Weather Trend & Rain Areas: Reduced moisture and slightly strengthened Pacific high pressure lead to clear and hot weather nationwide. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible in mountainous areas. Precautions: Return to typical summer heat.

Source: Wu Derong