Typhoon Noul Approaches Taiwan! Marine Warning Expected Tonight, Closest Approach on This Day, Heavy Rain in 3 Areas, Wind Impact, Work/School Suspension, and Weather Outlook

The Central Weather Administration (CWA) announced today (23rd) that a tropical depression located over the sea east of the Philippines is continuously consolidating and is expected to strengthen into the 12th typhoon of the year, 'Noul,' between late tonight (23rd) and early tomorrow morning (24th). The CWA may issue a marine typhoon warning as early as tonight to tomorrow morning.

According to the weather fan page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency,' Typhoon Noul will reach peak intensity while passing through the southwestern waters of Taiwan, potentially escalating to a moderate typhoon. Saturday (25th) will mark the closest approach to Taiwan, with Hualien and Taitung regions under high alert for torrential rain. Rainfall in southern regions will significantly intensify in the afternoon.

Based on the latest observational data from the Central Weather Administration and weather fan pages, at 8:00 a.m. today (23rd), the center of the pre-typhoon 'Noul' was located 1,110 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, moving northwest at 29 km/h. The central pressure was 1,002 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center at 15 m/s.

Regarding its future path, guided by a strong Pacific high-pressure system, the typhoon will pass through the Bashi Strait and the southern Taiwan Strait, heading toward Guangdong Province in China. The typhoon's wind field is expected to graze the southern coastal waters of Taiwan. The system will reach peak intensity while passing through the southwestern waters of Taiwan. After crossing the Bashi Strait on the 24th, it will approach the waters southwest of Taiwan and near Dongsha Island on Saturday (25th), before entering Guangdong Province, China, on Sunday (26th).

On timing for the marine warning, the CWA stated that the tropical depression is expected to strengthen into Typhoon Noul between late tonight (23rd) and early tomorrow (24th), possibly reaching the upper limit of a mild typhoon or even challenging moderate typhoon status. A marine typhoon warning is expected to be issued as early as tonight to tomorrow morning.

The 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' noted that the tropical system is still consolidating, with the low-level circulation center slightly exposed and the upper and lower layers not yet fully aligned, requiring more time to organize. If development proceeds smoothly, it could officially strengthen into a typhoon as early as tomorrow morning (24th).

Latest potential track map for Typhoon Noul as of July 23. (Image: Central Weather Administration)

Weather Impact: Typhoon Noul's wind field will graze southern coastal waters! Hualien, Taitung, and Hengchun Peninsula to experience the heaviest rainfall.

The 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' stated that the system will reach peak intensity while passing through the southwestern waters of Taiwan, possibly reaching moderate typhoon status. Although the typhoon's wind field will only graze southern coastal waters, outer circulation will still bring significant wind and rain impacts.

Regarding wind and rain impacts, starting tonight (24th), rainfall in eastern regions and the Hengchun Peninsula will gradually intensify, with Hualien, Taitung, and Hengchun areas under alert for heavy to localized torrential rain. Intermittent showers and strong gusts are expected along coastal areas of Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Yilan. Intermittent showers may also occur inland. Areas from Taipei to Chiayi, as well as Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, should watch for afternoon thunderstorms.

On Saturday (25th), the typhoon will be closest to Taiwan, bringing heavy to torrential rain to Hualien and Taitung. From the afternoon onward, winds will shift to southerly, significantly increasing rainfall in southern regions. Coastal areas of Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Yilan should remain alert for intermittent showers and strong gusts. Areas north of Chiayi, Greater Taipei, and Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu should watch for afternoon thunderstorms.

From Sunday to Wednesday (26th to 29th), although the typhoon will enter China, Taiwan will continue to be affected by southerly winds transporting moisture, resulting in intermittent showers in southern, Hualien-Taitung, and Hengchun areas. Weather across Taiwan will remain unstable.

In addition to rainfall, the CWA warned that sea conditions will significantly deteriorate from tonight (24th) to early Saturday (25th) in southeastern waters, southern Taiwan Strait, and northeastern coastal areas. Long-period swells are possible along coastal areas of Hualien, Taitung, southern Taiwan, and Penghu.

Will Typhoon Noul lead to work and school suspensions? Latest 120-hour typhoon impact probability revealed.

According to the CWA's latest '120-hour typhoon wind impact probability' for major cities and offshore islands as of July 23rd: Kinmen County 20%, Penghu County 10%, Hengchun 15%, Pingtung County 8%, Kaohsiung City 12%, Tainan City 8%, Chiayi County 3%, Taitung County and Chiayi City 2%, Lüdao and Yunlin County 1%.

120-hour typhoon wind impact probability for Typhoon Noul as of July 23. (Image: Central Weather Administration)

Will Typhoon Noul lead to work and school suspensions? Typhoon leave criteria explained.

According to the 'Regulations on Suspension of Work and Classes Due to Natural Disasters,' the official criteria for typhoon-related suspensions are based on three main indicators:

Wind criteria: If the typhoon's wind radius is expected to pass within 4 hours over an area where average wind speeds reach or exceed level 7, or gusts reach or exceed level 10.

Rainfall criteria: If cumulative rainfall over the next 24 hours reaches 350 mm in plains or 200 mm in mountainous areas, with potential for disaster.

Transportation, water, and power: If severe disruptions due to wind and rain cause significant interruptions to transportation, water, or power supply, clearly affecting safety for commuting or attending school.

The CWA emphasized that wind impact probability is a scientific forecasting reference. Although current data suggests a low probability of direct landfall, the path still carries uncertainty, and the actual impact on Taiwan's weather requires continuous close monitoring. Ultimately, decisions on work and school suspensions will be made by official announcements from local county and city governments.