Weather / Typhoon Noul's Latest Path! Will There Be a Typhoon Day Off? One County Faces Highest Impact Risk, Two Areas to See Heaviest Rain

The tropical system has been upgraded to Typhoon Noul, the 12th typhoon of the year, and the Central Weather Administration has officially issued a marine typhoon warning. According to the latest meteorological data, Typhoon Noul's center is located over the sea southeast of Eluanbi, moving northwest-west at a speed of 28 km/h, slowing to 25 km/h. The central pressure is 998 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center reaching 18 m/s, and the radius of gale-force winds (7-level) extending up to 60 km. Vessels operating in the Bashi Strait and near Dongsha Island are urged to take strict precautions.

The Central Weather Administration indicates that Noul's typhoon circle will primarily pass south of Taiwan. It is expected to move to a point approximately 250 km southwest of Eluanbi tomorrow. Although it will not make direct landfall, the effects of its outer circulation are already evident. Keelung, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Taitung, and Lienchiang may experience average winds of 6 or higher or gusts of 8 or more today, with coastal winds and waves already significantly increasing.

Following the upgrade by the Tokyo Regional Specialized Meteorological Center designated by the World Meteorological Organization, the Central Weather Administration officially adopted the international name 'Noul' in its 5:30 AM warning bulletin.

Typhoon impact probabilities by county have been released! What are the chances of a typhoon day off?

Regarding public concerns about the extent of impact and the possibility of work or school suspensions, according to the 120-hour typhoon impact probability released by the Central Weather Administration, Kinmen County has the highest risk at 15%, followed by Penghu County at 4% and Hengchun at 3%. Among counties on the main island, Tainan City and Kaohsiung City have a 2% probability, while Pingtung County stands at 1%.

All other counties and outlying islands—including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Taichung City, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Chiayi City, Taitung County, Hualien County, Yilan County, Lüdao, Lanyu, and Lienchiang County—currently show a 0% probability of typhoon-force wind impact. The administration notes that while most main island counties face low risk, brief gusty winds and rain from the outer circulation are still possible.

Western Taiwan faces 37°C heatwave! How will wind and rain trends evolve in the coming days?

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor of atmospheric sciences at National Central University, analyzed in a column for the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation that the latest European model simulations show that today, due to the typhoon's outer circulation and downslope airflow, western Taiwan will experience clear and extremely hot conditions. Maximum temperatures in northern and central regions are forecast to reach 37°C. Northern areas will see temperatures around 23–37°C, central 23–37°C, southern 25–37°C, and eastern 23–35°C, with sun protection and heatstroke prevention advised during daytime.

In terms of rainfall, moisture in eastern Taiwan will gradually increase from today, with rainfall becoming more pronounced from the Hengchun Peninsula to the Northeast Cape, especially later in the day. Tomorrow, under the influence of Noul's outer cloud system, the rain area will expand further. Hualien southward and Pingtung should prepare for heavier rain, while central areas may see occasional localized brief showers, with relatively minor impact on the north.

Meteorological experts point out that localized showers are expected in eastern, southeastern, and southern Taiwan on the 26th, with afternoon rains spreading to other regions. On the 27th and 28th, under the influence of southerly winds and residual moisture from Noul, localized rainfall will persist in southeastern and southern areas, with unstable atmospheric conditions increasing the likelihood of afternoon localized strong convection. From the 29th to August 1st, moisture will decrease and the Pacific high-pressure system will strengthen, leading to stable and hot weather across the island.