Will Taiwan Stocks Continue to Fall? Financial Expert Predicts 6 Key Events Next Week: These 2 Days Are the Market's Final Exam

Taiwan's stock market experienced another 'Black Friday' on the 24th, with a bloodbath across sectors. The weighted index lost both the 44,000-point level and its quarterly moving average, closing at 43,654.84 points—a sharp drop of 1,195.97 points—triggering widespread investor panic. In response, financial expert Ruan Mu-Hua posted on Facebook, highlighting 12 critical events next week. He stated bluntly that the next two days will be the market's final exam, and if tech giants collectively report negative free cash flow, equities could face renewed pressure.

On July 17, Taiwan's stock market suffered an unprecedented crash, plunging 2,953.71 points in a single day—the largest point drop in history. A week later, on the 24th, the index opened at 44,769.39 points, down 81.42 points, but continued to slide throughout the session, ending down 1,195.97 points—the ninth-worst drop on record. The sea of red left investors shaken, raising concerns about whether the AI-driven bull market has ended.

Ruan Mu-Hua identified the following key events for next week:

- 07/29: FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET) + Chair Press Conference. Rates expected to hold steady at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth consecutive time. Focus on QT (quantitative tightening) and the path for rate cuts (no dot plot). - 07/29: Microsoft + Meta Earnings (after market close). Cloud (Azure) and AI capital expenditures (capex) will impact Taiwan's AI server supply chain. - 07/30: US Q2 GDP Preliminary (BEA). A key indicator of economic health. - 07/30: Amazon + Apple Earnings (after market close). AWS and iPhone demand will affect Taiwan's tech supply chain. - 07/31: US June Core PCE + Personal Income & Spending. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, influencing September rate cut expectations. - 07/31: Taiwan Q2 GDP Preliminary (Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics). AI export contributions will be reflected in growth figures.

Ruan emphasized that July 29 and 30 will be the market's final exam, with the FOMC meeting and earnings from the 'Double M' (Microsoft, Meta) and 'Double A' (Amazon, Apple) tech giants all converging. If these tech leaders report a collective shift to negative free cash flow, the market could face renewed selling pressure.

If the Fed holds rates steady, US Treasury yields may not be contained, potentially pushing the 10-year yield toward 5%, creating further complications. If rates are hiked, AI-related financing pressures will intensify—creating a difficult dilemma. The market has already priced in a September rate cut; could the Fed surprise by hiking now? Ruan hopes for a positive outcome, noting that market cracks are already visible and cannot withstand another major shock.