Will Toppling Zhuo Rongtai's Cabinet Be Meaningless? Writer Proposes 'Offensive Recall': Lai Qingde's Lifelong Shame

Following his recent call for citizens to 'March on Ketagalan Boulevard on July 25 to Protect Food Safety,' Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an dropped a political bombshell on the 27th by publicly supporting a vote of no confidence in the Executive Yuan. Chiang's frequent involvement in major national issues has sparked widespread speculation. In response, writer Pirate Island posted on Facebook, stating that for President Lai Qingde, being successfully recalled before 2028 would be a lifelong humiliation. Therefore, the total number of votes in this year's municipal and county elections will be a crucial indicator. If the combined vote totals of the Blue and White camps across all municipalities and counties can be precisely calculated to yield a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Yuan during the next election, they could initiate a no-confidence motion, push for a legislative re-election, and then launch a presidential recall process.

Pirate Island pointed out that Chiang Wan-an's renewed call for a no-confidence vote comes at a critical timing. Public opinion polls are abstract, but voting is real. With local elections approaching at year-end, if the DPP achieves a landslide victory and significantly leads in total national votes, attempting a no-confidence motion and re-election could backfire, amounting to nothing more than an early 'graduation' of the Legislative Yuan and making Lai Qingde's next two years even smoother. Conversely, if the combined vote totals of the Blue and White camps achieve a decisive victory, there would be no need to initiate a no-confidence motion, as the DPP's defeat would inevitably force someone to take responsibility. Drawing from the 2019 election precedent—when then-Executive Yuan head Lai Qingde stepped down the year after the 2018 defeat—current Premier Zhuo Rongtai would find it difficult to escape the same fate.

No need for a no-confidence motion—Premier will resign anyway! Pirate Island: 2026 total votes are the key signal for recall

Pirate Island emphasized that if the DPP suffers a major defeat at year-end, the Executive Yuan head will resign even without a no-confidence motion. However, this would still serve as a critical signal for a potential recall, as a wave of public anger demanding recall may have already formed. For Lai Qingde, losing in 2028 would not be a major setback, but being successfully recalled before 2028—becoming the first president in the history of the Republic of China to be recalled—would be a lifelong humiliation. Thus, the total number of votes in this year's municipal and county elections becomes a key indicator. If the combined vote totals of the Blue and White camps across municipalities and counties can be precisely calculated to secure a two-thirds majority in the next Legislative Yuan election, they could proceed with a no-confidence motion, push for a legislative re-election, and then initiate a presidential recall process, forcing Lai Qingde to step down before his term ends, without waiting until 2028.

The president holds the final authority to dissolve the legislature! Without an 'explosive surge' in votes, the Blue and White's dream may remain illusory

Pirate Island noted that the 2026 election could indeed influence the presidency. National vote totals determine the number of legislative seats in the next election, while the accumulated level of public anger determines how high those vote totals can reach. Regarding a no-confidence motion and re-election, since the president holds the final decision-making power, if the 2026 vote totals indicate that the Blue and White camps could win a supermajority, and the president refuses to dissolve the legislature and call for re-election out of fear that a recall might succeed, repeatedly triggering no-confidence motions would become a political spectacle. In that case, grassroots forces like 'Little Grass' and 'Little Chick' could endlessly mock the Green Camp's 'Little Blue Bird' for being afraid to face a no-confidence vote and re-election.

Pirate Island concluded that the Blue and White camps must have extraordinary confidence and achieve unimaginable total vote numbers for advancing from a no-confidence motion to a presidential recall to have any meaning. Otherwise, their dream would remain a fantasy, and the more realistic and safer approach would be to maintain their current legislative seats and wait for the 2028 showdown. Chiang Wan-an's current call for a no-confidence motion may not carry much weight regarding a premier who would have to resign anyway after an election loss. But if the goal is to advance from a no-confidence motion to a recall and fulfill the Blue and White's grand dream, the key lies in the 2026 elections. The Blue and White must not only win in municipalities and counties, but also achieve an explosive surge in total votes—enough to elect a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Yuan—thereby writing a historical verdict that the president has been universally rejected by the people.