Taipei's stock market, after an astonishing rise of over 60% in the first half of the year, is now facing a significant correction in the third quarter. On the 28th, the main index plunged 2,030 points, marking the third-largest single-day drop in Taiwan's stock market history. From the record high of 48,218.87 points reached in June, the index has now fallen over 13.7%, currently retesting the 41,000-point and 40,000-point levels.
Should investors fear a 2,000-point plunge in Taiwan's stock market? Analyst reveals the truth behind P/E ratio correction.
Amid sharp market volatility, concerns are rising among investors. Well-known analyst Sun Qinglong, appearing on the financial program 'Little Universe Big Explosion,' shared his insights on the current market. He admitted that, deep down, he hopes the Taiwan stock market can take this opportunity to 'rest properly.' He analyzed that the P/E ratios in Taiwan's market were indeed elevated, and the market needs adequate time for a rational adjustment. Only when companies deliver stronger operational results in Q3 can the overall valuation structure become healthier.
Sun Qinglong emphasized the market principle: 'In rising markets, momentum matters; in falling markets, quality matters.' During periods of market volatility and consolidation, selecting individual stocks with solid fundamentals becomes the key to investment success. Investors should not panic excessively over short-term corrections.
Which industries will thrive for 15 years? Long-term bullish on four core AI technologies.
Looking at a longer investment horizon, Sun Qinglong believes the wave of artificial intelligence development is not just a one- or two-year cycle, but a long-term growth trend that could last 3, 5, 10, or even 15 years. Among various industry supply chains, he particularly highlights four core areas: CPO full-optical switches, advanced packaging and silicon photonics technology, high-power power and thermal solutions, and ASIC multi-computing architectures.
Sun revealed that he has already allocated capital in the ASIC field, focusing primarily on two benchmark stocks: TSMC and King Yuan Electronics. He stressed that these stocks possess long-term growth potential and are even part of his personal plan to pass down as 'dowry assets' to his daughter.
Can TSMC's stock price reach 4,000 NT dollars? P/E ratio and target price projections revealed.
Regarding TSMC, the most-watched 'national guardian mountain' in the market, Sun Qinglong conducted a long-term financial projection. He estimates that by 2029, TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) could reach 135 NT dollars. Using historical P/E ratios for range estimation, the conservative price would be around 2,226, the lower and upper bounds of a reasonable valuation would be 2,722 and 3,219, and the expensive valuation would reach 3,715.
Sun further analyzed that if market sentiment becomes extremely bullish, pushing the P/E ratio to a 'crazy' 31.20 times, TSMC's target price could potentially soar to 4,212, demonstrating the company's strong long-term fundamental resilience.
FACT BOX
- Source: PR Times
- Category: News
- Products / services: ASIC