Hsü Ping-wen's Perspective: 'Oil' Small but Significant! Anti-Poison Oil Anger Burns Towards the Core of the Administration, Will Lai Ching-te's 2028 Re-election Path Be Bumpy?

Can a barrel of oil topple a government? The answer may not be that simple. From the Chungli Oil poison oil incident to the Kaidao anti-food safety rally attracting large crowds, this food safety crisis, which initially seemed simple, has gradually evolved into a political test of governance. Food safety is not a blue-green issue but a problem that every family faces every day. People can accept government mistakes but find it hard to accept slow responses, lack of transparency, and the impression of avoiding major issues and arrogant attitudes. When the expectation of 'what to eat today' turns into the fear of 'what to dare eat today,' the government's credibility begins to erode.

In the past few years, the DPP government has faced controversies over eggs, the opening of pork imports, and Brazilian eggs. Now, with the poison oil incident, for many citizens, what has accumulated is not just one event but a sense of 'food safety fatigue.' If each crisis does not make society believe that the system is improving, people will naturally connect each event, forming an overall evaluation of the governing team's capabilities.

More noteworthy is that the KMT has successfully turned what was originally a livelihood issue of food safety into a large-scale political mobilization. Regardless of how the outside world views the number of participants announced by the organizers—80,000? 120,000? 200,000?—Kaidao has indeed become a stage for the venting of political emotions again, also representing that the opposition party has found an attack and defense axis that can resonate with society.

For Lai Ching-te, the real challenge may not be this march but whether the trust in people's hearts is being lost. If society generally believes that the government is always half a beat slow in responding to crises, officials cover up their mistakes and no one is held accountable, and clever arguments do not convince the public, then in 2028, voters may cast their ballots not in support of or opposition to a particular candidate, but as a comprehensive reckoning of four years of governance.

Of course, one march will not directly decide the 2028 presidential election, nor can it be concluded that Lai Ching-te will definitely lose his re-election advantage. Taiwan's elections ultimately depend on multiple factors such as the economy, cross-strait relations, security, energy, and social welfare, with food safety being just one of them.

However, what politics fears most is not making mistakes but making people feel that the government has not learned from its mistakes. If the food safety crisis continues to escalate and investigations and accountability cannot convince society, 'poison oil' may not only be a food safety incident but will first become the 'blue-green mutual scolding book' for the 2026 nine-in-one election and will be repeatedly mentioned as a political symbol in 2028.

History has repeatedly proven that what topples the ruling party is not a single event but a series of seemingly fragmented but continuously eroding 'public sentiment' small matters, which then accumulate into a 'public grievance' big matter, and then a change of power is not far away!

From a barrel of oil, we see the government's crisis management capability; from the people's dining table, we see whether the rulers can guard the most basic trust. 2028 is still far away, but the countdown of public opinion often begins today.