Warning Labels Surge to 85%, Legal Heated Tobacco Stalls, Black Market Expands: Has Taiwan’s Tobacco Control Policy Lost Focus?

The Legislative Yuan’s Health and Welfare Committee recently completed the preliminary review of partial amendments to the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act, approving a proposal to increase the size of health warning labels on tobacco products and heated tobacco devices from the current 50% to 85%.

Following the announcement, tobacco industry associations in Taipei, New Taipei, and Tainan have voiced strong concerns, with frontline retailers stating they only learned about the change “through the news.”

Frankly, the Executive Yuan’s urgency in pushing this legislation stems largely from the need to address public safety issues caused by the surge in illicit vapes and synthetic drugs like etomidate—commonly known as “zombie vapes.” However, while the government advances this reform under the banner of public health and safety, a glaring contradiction has emerged in policy execution.

On one hand, it is aggressively tightening regulations; on the other, the health risk assessment review for new heated tobacco products has been stalled for over eight months, with no approvals issued to date. Can this wait-and-see approach truly achieve public health goals? The answer is clearly no.

In reality, when legal heated tobacco products—backed by comprehensive data and formal review applications—are indefinitely delayed, market demand does not disappear. Instead, consumers are driven underground. Today, smuggled heated tobacco devices and pods are openly sold on underground websites and social media groups specializing in illicit e-cigarettes.

The government may believe that by refusing to review, it can maintain plausible deniability. In practice, however, it is allowing the black market to expand unchecked, enabling untested and dangerous tobacco products to proliferate through underground networks.

The committee’s decision to abruptly raise warning labels to 85% is particularly striking given that Taiwan only recently increased the requirement from a long-standing 35% to 50% in March 2024—less than two years ago.

More importantly, international research suggests that the effectiveness of health warnings is not simply “bigger is better.” According to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS), the impact of warning labels varies across different education levels. Some studies indicate that their effect is strongest among lower-educated populations and may not be equally effective across all demographic groups. This suggests that a one-size-fits-all policy may not yield uniform results.

Therefore, rather than hastily increasing warning labels to 85%, the government should first evaluate the real-world impact of the current 50% policy—on smoking rates, quit intentions, and public awareness of health risks—before deciding whether further tightening is necessary.

Moreover, this sudden regulatory change risks compressing space for mandatory product labeling and other critical safety information, potentially infringing on consumers’ “right to know.” Frontline retailers—such as convenience stores, betel nut stands, and grocery shops across Taiwan—face increased operational burdens in inventory management, product identification, and stock transitions, yet these challenges have been largely overlooked in the legislative debate.

When we examine the adjustment timelines of neighboring Asian countries, a common logic emerges: gradual, predictable changes with sufficient adaptation periods for both industry and consumers. For example, Thailand increased warnings from 50% in 2006, with subsequent adjustments in 2010 and 2014—each spaced about four years apart. Malaysia phased in changes over three stages starting in 2009, with intervals of about five years. Even Indonesia, which began more recently, has set a seven-year timeline from 2018 to 2026. In contrast, Taiwan plans another adjustment just two years after the last one—far shorter than any other country’s cycle—making this abrupt move stand out starkly against international norms.

The essence of public policy should be governance, not ostrich-like avoidance. As the bill now enters cross-party negotiations, the government must stop using “review stagnation” as an excuse to evade responsibility. Only by fully transparentizing and normalizing the health risk assessment mechanism—bringing legal products back under regulated oversight, cracking down hard on illegal black-market operations, and providing frontline retailers with adequate communication and transition time—can Taiwan’s tobacco control policy return to the right track. If legal reviews continue to stall while the illegal market expands, the ultimate beneficiaries will not be public health, but the underground black market.

The author is a social observer and graduate student.