Will the Next Premier Be Someone Other Than Chen Chi-mai? Former Legislator Names Two Candidates: Lai Qingde's Preferred Choice Is 'Him'

The central government's handling of the tainted oil incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among local leaders. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an fired the first shot, advocating for a vote of no confidence and demanding that Premier Cho Jung-tai take political responsibility and step down. He simultaneously nominated Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, who enjoys high approval ratings, as a suitable successor for the cabinet.

In response to this political turmoil, political commentator and former legislator Kuo Cheng-liang provided an in-depth analysis of the subsequent personnel arrangements and political developments.

Regarding whether Chen Chi-mai is a leading candidate for premier, Kuo Cheng-liang, on the political commentary program 'Green Also Flips the Table,' analyzed that President Lai Qingde's preferred choice is unlikely to be Chen Chi-mai. The core consideration behind this lies in whether an intra-party challenger will emerge in the 2028 presidential election.

Kuo recalled past history, noting that Lai Qingde himself became Premier in 2017, and the following year, the DPP suffered a major defeat in local elections. After serving as premier for one year, Lai challenged then-President Tsai Ing-wen in the party's primary. Given this personal experience, Kuo emphasized that Lai will inevitably be more cautious when appointing a new premier.

On Chiang Wan-an's call for a no-confidence vote, Kuo believes that if such a vote occurs, the more normal political move for the DPP would be for Cho Jung-tai to accept resignation without triggering a legislative re-election, as holding legislative elections at this time would be relatively unfavorable for the DPP. However, Kuo specifically pointed out that Lai Qingde's decision-making often defies expectations.

Kuo analyzed that if the Legislative Yuan is dissolved and re-elected, the campaign would likely revive the 'resist China, protect Taiwan' narrative. Additionally, the re-election process would create a 60-day period without legislative representatives, during which unpredictable political changes could occur, potentially escalating into extreme political scenarios.

Regarding potential successors if Cho Jung-tai steps down, Kuo named two key figures: Presidential Office Secretary-General Pang Meng-an and Vice Premier Tina Chiu. However, he assessed that Chiu, who has always prioritized family and is currently handling critical U.S.-Taiwan economic negotiations, is not someone actively seeking political power, making her willingness to accept the role relatively low. In contrast, Pang Meng-an has a higher chance of being selected.

Kuo added that Chen Chi-mai is not entirely out of the running. If Lai Qingde's public approval ratings decline in the future, non-New Tide faction forces within the party may generate momentum, forcing Lai to carefully respond to internal party pressure and demands for cabinet reshuffling.