Weather Forecast: Typhoon Dolphin Upgraded to Strong Typhoon! Latest Path Shifts Closer to Taiwan, 'Two Consecutive Days of Heavy Thunderstorms', Clearing Up on This Day

Typhoon 13 'Dolphin' has officially been upgraded to a strong typhoon! Due to favorable development conditions—high sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content (OHC), low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence—Dolphin is intensifying at an astonishing rate. Meteorological experts indicate that Dolphin's intensity now matches that of the previous Typhoon 'Bavi,' and over the next few days, it could surge to a maximum sustained wind speed of 63 meters per second near the center, potentially becoming the year's strongest 'wind king.' Will Typhoon Dolphin affect Taiwan? What impact will it have on the weather over the coming week?

Typhoon Dolphin's Explosive Intensification Could Make It the Year's Strongest Storm! Peak Intensity Expected 'These Two Days'

According to the latest observational data from the Central Weather Administration, Typhoon Dolphin's central pressure has dropped to 895 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center reaching 60 meters per second. The radius of gale-force winds (7-level) has expanded to 200 kilometers, and the radius of storm-force winds (10-level) is 100 kilometers.

Meteorologist Lin De-en stated that Dolphin is still moving over extremely favorable waters and is expected to reach peak intensity between July 31 and August 1 (Friday to Saturday). Fortunately, the typhoon is currently far from Taiwan, moving over open waters, and poses no immediate direct threat.

Rainfall trends over the next week. (Image: Central Weather Administration)

Divergence in international forecast models: Do traditional numerical models predict a westward shift closer to Taiwan?

The strength and movement of the Pacific High will be the key factor determining Dolphin's future track. Meteorologist Wu De-rong, in a column for the Meteorological Application and Promotion Foundation, noted that major global forecast models have been revised, with most now indicating an increased likelihood of a westward shift, reducing the probability of a direct hit on Japan's main island.

However, different forecast models still show divergence in their predicted paths:

Traditional physical numerical models (e.g., ECMWF, NCEP): Predict a further westward shift, bringing the typhoon relatively close to the waters north of Taiwan.

AI-based artificial intelligence models (e.g., EC-AIFS, AIGFS): Predict a slightly southward-adjusted ensemble mean track, generally passing between Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu, or moving along the southern waters of Japan and South Korea.

Wu De-rong added that although the track has slightly shifted southward, AI models still estimate the probability of the typhoon's wind field affecting northern Taiwan at less than 10%. Given the long lead time, the overall atmospheric environment continues to adjust, resulting in high path uncertainty, requiring close monitoring.

Weather Forecast for the Next Week: Hot and Sunny, with Afternoon Thunderstorms

From now until August 1 (Saturday)

The Pacific High is gradually strengthening, leading to a more stable atmosphere. Most areas will experience 'partly cloudy to sunny' weather with high temperatures ranging from 33 to 36 degrees Celsius. Afternoon thunderstorms may still occur locally in mountainous areas and some nearby lowlands. Sun protection, hydration, and heatstroke prevention are essential.

August 2 to August 5 (Sunday to next Wednesday)

Under the full coverage of the Pacific High, weather across regions will be stable and extremely hot, with the range of afternoon thunderstorms further shrinking.

August 6 to August 8 (next Thursday to Saturday)

Atmospheric moisture will gradually increase, raising the probability of localized afternoon thunderstorms once again.

High temperature trends over the next week. (Image: Central Weather Administration)