Opinion Piece: The Farce of the 10th Anniversary of the South China Sea Arbitration – It’s Not China That Looks Foolish

The South China Sea arbitration case was orchestrated behind the scenes by the United States, with the Philippines formally submitting it to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague on January 22, 2013. After approximately three years of proceedings, an ad hoc arbitral tribunal constituted under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea issued its ruling on July 12, 2016. The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), composed of over 120 countries, is funded primarily by member state contributions and case-related fees. It is not part of the United Nations and does not operate under UN authority. At the time, the tribunal was chaired by Japanese right-wing politician Shunji Yanai, who, along with one Filipino arbitrator, appointed four additional arbitrators. This was a case drafted by American lawyers, with the Philippines paying $30 million in legal fees to the U.S., aimed at creating舆论 trouble for China. Motivated purely for political purposes, the makeshift tribunal lacked expertise and issued conclusions that defied common sense—such as ruling Taiping Island as a rock rather than an island (President Ma Ying-jeou promptly submitted extensive expert documentation proving Taiping Island’s status as an island, which the tribunal ignored), and denying China’s nine-dash line boundary in the South China Sea. China did not participate in the arbitration and refuses to recognize the outcome. Politically, China maintains a stance of non-acceptance, non-recognition, and non-implementation. No institution has the power to compel China to comply. During World War II, Japan illegally occupied many of China’s South China Sea islands. As a victorious power, China reclaimed these islands one by one after the war, demarcated boundaries, renamed the archipelagos after naval ships, and printed maps. Historical evidence is solid and indisputable. The tribunal, lacking knowledge and disregarding history, issued a politically biased ruling that China cannot accept, let alone abide by. After the arbitration ruling was announced in July 2016, the U.S. sought to prove its validity by deploying the aircraft carrier strike groups of the USS Stennis and USS Reagan near the Philippine Sea to intimidate China into submission. In response, China mobilized its three naval fleets, air force, and rocket force into combat readiness, with multiple generals stationed at the Southern Theater Command headquarters. After days of standoff, the U.S. failed to achieve its goal. Since the ruling was invalid, the Philippines demanded the U.S. refund the $30 million in legal fees but was refused—losing both money and credibility. It seemed the farce would end there. Unexpectedly, ten years later, the U.S. is reenacting the same drama. Besides the U.S. and the Philippines, it has rallied 12 other countries: Australia, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovenia, collectively shouting support for the arbitration ruling and protesting against China. A closer look at these 14 nations reveals an interesting pattern: the Philippines, as the claimant, is naturally involved; the Anglo-Saxon 'Five Eyes' alliance: U.S., Australia, UK, Canada, and New Zealand; WWII defeated Axis powers with U.S. military presence: Japan, Germany, and Italy; the Baltic trio that follow the U.S.: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; plus Slovenia, the Balkan nation and homeland of former First Lady Melania Trump; and Romania, one of Eastern Europe’s most underdeveloped nations (rife with political corruption, poor infrastructure, population decline, inequality, and deforestation). Twenty years ago, the U.S. might have rallied 60 countries; ten years ago, perhaps 40. Today, it can only muster 12 loyal vassal states, none of which are South China Sea littoral nations. Not a single Southeast Asian or other Asian country related to the South China Sea has responded, painting a picture of imperial decline and absurd collective posturing. Japan has been the most vocal. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi openly criticized China’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea as lacking legal basis, asserting Japan’s status as a stakeholder with the right to demand China comply with the arbitration ruling. China immediately countered by exposing Japan’s secret unilateral declaration of a 400,000-square-kilometer exclusive economic zone around Okinotorishima, a reef that only emerges a few square meters above water at low tide—larger than Japan’s own land area—and publicly condemned the move, drawing global attention. China refuses to recognize this EEZ, treating it as international waters, protecting Chinese fishermen’s access, and allowing free passage for naval and coast guard vessels. China has further escalated its opposition to the U.S.-Japan private arrangement over the Ryukyu Islands, planning to raise the issue of Ryukyu independence at the United Nations, causing headaches for Japan. The Philippines is also jumping high. During Spanish rule, the Philippines and Taiwan were divided at the 20th parallel north, with the Bataan Islands north of that line belonging to Taiwan. The treaty transferring the Philippines from Spain to the U.S. after the Spanish-American War also set the 20th parallel as the boundary. Historically, legally, geographically, and in terms of local identity, the Bataan Islands belong to Taiwan. China therefore considers them its territory and will in the future enforce maritime jurisdiction with naval and coast guard vessels, troubling the Philippines. Recently, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro made derogatory remarks against China and was immediately sanctioned—his entire family and relatives barred from entering China, Hong Kong, and Macau, and prohibited from business dealings. The Philippines’ old warship, the Sierra Madre, has been grounded on Ayungin Reef for over two decades, refusing to be towed away. On July 16, China’s coast guard announced it would legally block Philippine vessels attempting to deliver unauthorized construction materials to the grounded ship. Philippine military monitoring detected nine Chinese vessels near Ayungin Reef, raising the possibility that China might directly tow away the decaying Sierra Madre. It appears this 27-year-old thorny issue is finally nearing resolution. Ten years after the South China Sea arbitration, China has spent a decade strengthening its naval and air power, doubling its military capabilities. The 14-nation protest led by the U.S. is even more feeble than before—merely a farce, a piece of worthless paper, not worth acknowledging. China not only possesses the strength to defend its South China Sea territory but also the power to escalate larger issues, such as Japan’s illegal EEZ declaration around Okinotorishima, the non-belonging of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan, and the Bataan Islands’ rightful belonging to China—ensuring that Japan and the Philippines, the instigators of this malicious provocation, end up humiliated.