Liu Junzu Column: Conquering in Three Years—China's 2035 Goal to Become a Technological Powerhouse Is No Dream

Amid the scorching summer heat, disasters continue to strike around the world. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East show no signs of ending. Concepts such as the 'Red Horse and Red Sheep Calamity,' the 'Li Nine Period,' and the annual value of the 'Tong Ren' hexagram in the 'Huang Ji Jing Shi' seem to accurately reflect today’s chaotic global situation. If this year is like this, will next year still struggle to overcome crisis?

The strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China has become a focal point of global attention, sparking professional and amateur discussions alike as various indicators fluctuate. Setting aside ideology and emotional responses, let us analyze and forecast several notable recent indicators.

First is the issue of Dutch EUV lithography machines, instigated by the United States. China insists on no compromise and actively promotes alternative, independent development, which severely impacts Dutch revenues. I asked whether China could break through within three years and received the top line of the Pi (Stripping Away) hexagram moving, transforming appropriately into the Kun (Earth) hexagram.

The top line’s text reads: 'The big fruit is not eaten; the noble person gains the carriage, the petty person has their roof stripped away.' The Xiao Xiang commentary states: 'The noble person gains the carriage because they are supported by the people; the petty person has their roof stripped away because they are ultimately unusable.' Before Pi comes the Shi Ke (Biting Through) and Bi (Adorning) hexagrams—Shi Ke represents the jungle law of the strong devouring the weak, masked by Bi’s clever rhetoric and embellishment.

When the oppressed side is stripped to the extreme, resistance may ignite, leading to self-reliance and the development of core creativity—this is the Fu (Return) hexagram, which follows Pi. Fu is not imitation or copying, but innovation with unique characteristics. Thus, at the critical moment of survival in Pi’s top line, two entirely different outcomes emerge: the noble person gains public support; the petty person, lacking virtue and ability, loses all standing. Judging from current progress, Huawei and other Chinese firms’ rapid self-strengthening suggests they will likely pass this test.

Recently, Huawei proposed the 'Tao (T) Law,' advocating 'time miniaturization' instead of traditional 'geometric miniaturization,' aiming to enhance chip performance without relying on EUV lithography. Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, acknowledged this technology but noted TSMC has pursued this path for over a decade and poses no threat to Taiwan. My divination yielded the Kan (Danger) hexagram with lines two and five moving. Line five, in the ruler’s position, transforms appropriately into the Shi (Army) hexagram. Both lines moving together form the image of Kun (Earth)—vast land and numerous people.

Kan signifies repeated risks. Line two can only protect itself, while line five, in the ruler’s position, can lead the construction of a secure, new ecosystem. It appears that, at the latest within three years, a breakthrough will occur.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is even more noteworthy. Recent reports suggest the gap between the U.S. and China in AI has significantly narrowed—this is undoubtedly the most critical area. I again used a three-year timeframe for analysis.

For the U.S., the Jia Ren (Family) hexagram showed lines one, three, and six moving, all transforming into the Bi (Alliance) hexagram. Line one, 'Guard the family,' implies strict access control; line six closes the back door; line three strictly enforces rules to prevent technology leakage. Bi represents coalition-building, using diplomatic means to pressure allies into joining the blockade.

For mainland China, the Xu (Waiting) hexagram showed lines two, three, five, and six moving, collectively transforming into the Yi (Nourishment) hexagram. This indicates that essential needs for survival and development are progressively overcome, ultimately achieving success and establishing a self-sustaining, complete ecosystem. The top line reads: 'Entering the cave, three unexpected guests arrive; respect them, and in the end, it will be auspicious.' External parties will come in groups; treating them with respect leads to a favorable outcome.

Perhaps based on such confidence, Beijing declared its goal to become a technological power by 2035. My divination resulted in the Dui (Joy) hexagram with lines one and five moving, collectively transforming into the Jie (Liberation) hexagram. Line one represents the broad grassroots, with the text: 'Harmonious joy, auspicious.' The Xiao Xiang commentary: 'The auspiciousness of harmonious joy means actions are without doubt.' Line five, in the ruler’s position, reads: 'Trust in stripping away, danger present.' Commentary: 'The position is correct.' Despite hardship, exhaustion leads to renewal, and the promise is fulfilled.

Meanwhile, the quadrennial FIFA World Cup has been exciting, with thrilling matches. I woke up several times late at night to watch live broadcasts. The final was between Spain and Argentina, with Spain widely favored to win. A few days prior, I cast the hexagrams. For Argentina: Tong Ren (Fellowship) hexagram lines one, four, five, and six moved, collectively transforming into Qian (Humility), with line four transforming into Jia Ren (Family). The text: 'Climb the wall, cannot attack, auspicious'—blocked before the goal, able only to defend. For Spain: the fifth line of Qian (The Creative) hexagram moved, transforming into Da You (Great Possession). Text: 'The flying dragon in the sky, favorable to see the great person.' Commentary: 'The great person creates!' Clearly, victory was destined—and indeed, Spain won.