US Stock Weekly Outlook: This Week's 'Three Major Variables' Will Test Markets, Global Equities on High Alert

The direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, major earnings releases, and Middle East geopolitical tensions—these three variables will simultaneously test markets this week. According to a Reuters survey, the US July non-farm payroll report scheduled for August 7 is expected to show 91,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. If employment data exceeds expectations, the probability of a September rate hike could rise further. Conversely, if the labor market cools, focus will shift to recession risks.

Approximately 20% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, including Eli Lilly, AMD, Caterpillar, Palantir, and Merck. Most notably, SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly report as a public company on August 4, with Elon Musk personally attending. Investors are closely watching Starlink's growth, Starship development timeline, and capital expenditure planning. According to LSEG IBES data, S&P 500 companies are expected to report a 29.3% year-on-year increase in adjusted EPS for Q2.

SK Hynix (SKHY-US) will exit its IPO quiet period, surging 30% to hit the daily limit in Seoul last Friday, closing at 1.718 million Korean won, while its US ADR fell 3.6% to $143.69. South Korea’s Kospi index, after plunging 40% over six weeks, rebounded sharply by 18%. Additionally, AMD will announce its Q2 earnings after market close on August 4. The market will focus on its data center business, AI accelerator deliveries, and gross margin—data that could determine whether the broader semiconductor sector continues its rally.

Former President Donald Trump confirmed the cancellation of military strikes against Iran just before 6 PM Eastern Time yesterday, with both sides entering a new round of negotiations aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resolving nuclear issues. In a statement, Trump said: 'For the benefit of the world’s future and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, I have agreed to cancel the attack, provided a swift agreement is reached.' US markets are expected to react when trading resumes on Monday.

Earnings Bonanza Week! Storage Giant SanDisk Closes the Week on August 5

The week begins with the release of the July ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday, followed by ADP private employment and ISM Services Index on Wednesday. After market close, SanDisk will report its fiscal 2026 Q4 earnings, revealing NAND flash memory pricing and high-end storage demand. The week concludes with the July non-farm payroll report on Friday.