Who has the advantage in the 2026 Dual North mayoral elections?

In Taipei, Shen Po-yang faces an uphill battle; in New Taipei, Li Sichuan holds a slight edge.

Why is the 2026 election seen as a precursor to the 2028 presidential race?

Candidates are building local support networks and establishing bases for the upcoming presidential election.

How strong is Shen Po-yang's voter base in Taipei?

Estimated at around 500,000 votes, his ability to stabilize the pan-green base is crucial.

What is the poll gap between Li Sichuan and Su Chiao-hui in New Taipei?

Only 0.2 percentage points apart, but Li shows growing youth support.

How credible is Weng Lizhong's election analysis?

As a U.S.-based scholar, he offers objective, data-driven insights that attract significant public attention.

2026 Taipei-Mayor Race Already Decided? Scholar Analyzes Latest Campaign: These Two Have High Winning Chances

Published Aug 3, 2026 11:40 AM ・ Updated Aug 3, 2026 12:18 PM ・ 4 min read ・ Source: PR Times

As the 2026 municipal elections approach, political analyst Weng Lizhong assesses the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral races, suggesting Shen Po-yang faces low odds in Taipei, while Li Sichuan holds a slightly more stable position than Su Chiao-hui in New Taipei, with both contests shaping up as precursors to the 2028 presidential election.

With the 2026 municipal leader elections drawing near, how is the closely watched Dual North mayoral race—referring to Taipei and New Taipei cities—shaping up?

According to overseas-based scholar Weng Lizhong, who appeared on the program 'TVBS War Room,' preliminary judgments on the outcomes of the six major city elections have already taken form.

Regarding Taipei City, Weng stated that although Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Shen Po-yang has relatively low winning odds, he has now entered the traditional campaign model of 'standing alongside legislative councilors' to consolidate the green camp's core voter base.

Weng also noted that given Shen's previous visit to the United States and other factors, this year's election appears more like preparation for the 2028 presidential race.

Weng emphasized that he already has personal assessments on the likely outcomes in the six special municipalities. Therefore, what he is now observing more closely is whether the 2028 presidential race has already begun. 'To ensure local political networks are solid, the 2026 elections are actually being used to gauge readiness for 2028,' he said.

When host Qian Yijun asked if the New Taipei mayoral race was truly neck-and-neck, Weng acknowledged it was indeed competitive, but added that under current conditions, Li Sichuan still had a somewhat more stable chance of victory.

Additional exclusive insights from Storm Media:

· Does Shen Po-yang have at least 500,000 core votes in Taipei? Huang Weihan analyzes past election data: 'Chiang Wan-an must not be complacent.'

· Is 'the situation serious' for Su Chiao-hui? Green-aligned polls show her barely leading Li Sichuan by just 0.2 percentage points; Huang Shixiu reveals her fatal flaw: 'She's been severely hurt by him.'

· Li Sichuan's 'youth support rate' overtakes Su Chiao-hui; Wu Zijia reveals the central theme of the New Taipei race: 'Relative deprivation is too intense.'

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Source: PR Times
Category: News

2026 Taipei-Mayor Race Already Decided? Scholar Analyzes Latest Campaign: These Two Have High Winning Chances

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