Weather Forecast / Will Typhoon Dolphin Trigger School and Work Closures on Friday? Heavy Rains Expected for 3 Days, Northern Regions Face Highest Risk of Entering Storm Zone

Moderate Typhoon Dolphin is continuing its westward track toward the Ryukyu Islands and the East China Sea. According to the Central Weather Administration, high-pressure systems over the Pacific will cause hot and sunny weather over the next two days. The Administration has already issued high-temperature alerts for 10 counties and cities, including Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Nantou, Yunlin, Tainan, Pingtung, and Hualien, which are under orange heat warnings due to the likelihood of consecutive days with temperatures reaching 36°C or higher. Hsinchu City and County are under yellow warnings, with temperatures also expected to exceed 36°C.

For the next two days, most areas will remain hot and sunny, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms in mountainous areas of southern and central Taiwan.

Regarding the path of Typhoon No. 13, 'Dolphin,' data from the Central Weather Administration shows that at midnight, the storm was located approximately 2,280 kilometers east of Taipei, moving west at 19 km/h, with maximum sustained winds near the center reaching 40 m/s, maintaining its status as a large moderate typhoon.

Meteorological expert Wu Derong, writing in his column 'Leak Heaven’s Secrets Classroom,' noted that Typhoon Dolphin is gradually weakening and will move westward past the Ryukyu Islands over the next four days. On the fifth day, it will enter the southern East China Sea, where its forward speed will slow, increasing uncertainty in its track. Based on the latest European ensemble model simulations, the typhoon’s path is showing high dispersion after four days due to varying rates of weakening in northern high-pressure systems—resembling a 'scattering of flowers from the heavens.' Wu explained that the farther north and at a sharper angle the typhoon veers, the less impact Taiwan will experience, making this a key point for ongoing monitoring.

Starting Thursday (6th), northeastern winds will develop around Taiwan, bringing occasional brief showers to northern areas. From Friday to Sunday (7th–9th), Dolphin’s outer circulation will pass through the northern waters of Taiwan before moving into mainland China. Affected by its outer bands, northern and central-southern regions will see scattered brief showers on Friday, with rainfall potentially intensifying across western Taiwan on Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by slightly cooler temperatures. Eastern regions, affected by downslope warming, should prepare for extreme heat, while all areas must remain vigilant against strong gusty winds.

Starting Monday (10th), as the typhoon moves away, Taiwan will shift to a southwesterly flow, bringing isolated showers or thunderstorms to windward southwestern areas, while other regions return to clear and hot weather conditions.

The Central Weather Administration has released the '120-Hour Typhoon Wind Probability' statistics as Dolphin approaches. Data indicates that northern and northeastern regions face the highest risk, with the top five being Keelung City (36%), Taipei City (34%), New Taipei City (33%), Taoyuan City (32%), and Yilan County and Lienchiang County both at 31%. Hsinchu County and City, Miaoli County, and Hualien County fall between 22% and 28%, while central, southern, and outlying islands remain below 20%.

Rainfall trends for the coming week. (Image: Central Weather Administration)

Typhoon Dolphin storm zone probability. (Image: Central Weather Administration)