Latest Typhoon Path of Typhoon Shirauchi Released! Will a Marine Warning Be Issued? Typhoon Holiday Possible? Meteorologist: Heavy Rain Expected in Next Two Days

Typhoon Shirauchi is continuing its westward track. According to Wu Shengyu, a weather expert, the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast as of 8:00 a.m. on August 4 indicates that the overall path trend is gradually becoming clearer, largely consistent with yesterday's outlook. The faster the typhoon moves westward before August 7, the more westward its position will be. During the weekend, the eastward movement of a westerly trough from the north will cause the high-pressure system to retreat eastward, initiating a northward shift in the typhoon's direction. The degree of this northward turn will directly determine the extent of Taiwan's impact.

Will a marine warning be issued? Wu explains that the edge of the typhoon's wind field may just graze the marine warning threshold. However, this depends on the extent of high-pressure weakening and the timing and angle of the typhoon’s northward turn. A definitive path can only be confirmed once ensemble forecasts converge clearly and stop diverging.

This northward turn forecast is particularly unusual. Wu points out that while it appears to be caused by the eastward retreat of the northern high-pressure system, forecast models simultaneously show that the high pressure does not clearly extend into the space between Typhoon Shirauchi and another potential disturbance to the east—meaning the so-called RMT effect is not evident. The entire monsoon gyre remains strong, showing no signs of being penetrated by the high pressure. Under these conditions, such a sharp northward turn prediction is quite rare.

Wu speculates this could be related to a larger-scale monsoon circulation west of the typhoon, but this remains a hypothesis. The true cause can only be determined after the typhoon actually turns north, using real observational data to analyze the background circulation. For now, the eastward retreat of the northern high pressure remains the most plausible explanation.

If the northward turn is large, the path will shift toward the Yangtze River estuary and Shanghai area, keeping it farther from Taiwan and resulting in milder impacts. If the turn is smaller and the typhoon approaches the Zhejiang coast, northern and eastern Taiwan will experience more significant wind and rain, while central and southern regions will see brief showers.

Detailed rainfall forecast timeline: On August 4, winds near Taiwan have shifted to northeasterly to northerly, but moisture remains low, with afternoon thunderstorms mainly in mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan. From August 5 to 6, northerly to northeasterly winds continue, with gradually increasing moisture. Northern Taiwan’s windward side will see brief showers, and afternoon thunderstorms in central and southern areas will become more pronounced.

From August 7 to 8, northwesterly flows from the typhoon’s outer circulation will gradually move in, making rainfall more pronounced on the windward side of central and northern Taiwan. Mountainous areas may experience localized heavy rain, with August 8 expected to see the most concentrated and significant rainfall. From August 9 to 10, as the typhoon gradually moves northward, winds near Taiwan will shift to southwesterly, increasing rainfall in central and southern regions. Whether strong southwesterly flows develop afterward remains worth monitoring, according to Wu Shengyu.